Iran is not stupid

OP-ED: Iran's New Nuclear Diplomacy, By Kaveh Afrasiabi, World Politics Review, 09 Sep 2009

Good example of rational analysis on Iran, from an Iranian.

The key gist:

Taken as a whole, Iran's new nuclear diplomacy is geared toward sustaining Iran's peaceful nuclear program, giving the country only a latent proliferation capability. The approach enhances Iran's national security interests, while throwing roadblocks on the path of sanctions, whether new or old.

In any event, Iran's rapid progress in nuclear technology has already rendered sanctions problematic and the West's effort to dispossess Iran of its much-cherished nuclear advancement moot. Indeed, the large degree of consensus across the political spectrum in Iran regarding its right to master the nuclear fuel cycle free from foreign pressures gives President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's a strong domestic mandate to continue along the nuclear path, regardless of any political challenges he faces as a result of the disputed Iranian presidential election.

With the "zero centrifuges" no longer a viable option, and that of "limited centrifuges" also a longshot due to Iran's aversion to foreign dependency on nuclear fuel, the U.S. and its allies would do well to formulate a viable negotiation demand -- not least because the enthusiasm for sanctions has faded. By foregoing sanctions moving forward, the West would also ensure that the genie of Iranian nuclear proliferation remains perpetually latent, particularly if this approach is coupled with a smart Western diplomacy that addresses Iran's welter of national security concerns.

Fortunately, the Iranian approach actually invites direct negotiation instead of shunning it, which means that the time for a normal treatment of Iran's nuclear file could be close at hand. Though this might seem like an overly optimistic interpretation, there are too many unwanted perils -- for both regional and world peace -- to let the pessimists steer this crisis toward the other fork in this critical diplomatic road.

In short, Iran would be satisfied with a Japan-like outcome (latent proliferation capability) but nothing less.

Read the whole piece, because this guy's delineation of Tehran's strategy here is most illuminating:

The components of this strategy are:

- Increasing transparency .... [Tom: cynical but clever]

- Floating a new negotiating "package"... [ditto]

- Casting doubt on Western evidence of illicit "weaponization studies" [sense a pattern?]

- Emphasizing the resolution of six "outstanding issues" in Iran's favor ...

- Seeking new legal barriers against a military strike .... [bingo!]

- Framing the nuclear dispute in the context of Iran's NPT rights [also smart]

- Linking nuclear diplomacy to broader engagement: Another key element of Iran's new nuclear diplomacy is a linkage approach that connects the nuclear issue with a host of other security and regional issues, such as instability in neighboring Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Linkage functions both positively, by identifying instances of "shared or common interests," and negatively, by emphasizing how these areas could substantially deteriorate -- creating problems for the U.S. in particular -- in the event of a showdown with Iran over the nuclear issue. This approach echoes the West's last incentive package, which repeatedly made the connection between the nuclear issue and regional security issues, and even called for Iran's participation in a regional security conference. [now we get to the serious possibilities ...]

- Pushing the idea of a Middle East nuclear weapons-free zone: Finally, this aspect of Iran's nuclear diplomacy in turn raises the issue of Israel's clandestine proliferation, the West's inaction and double standard regarding it, and the relationship between nonproliferation and disarmament. [a win-win for Iran no matter how it goes down]

These guys are not stupid and they're not out-of-control ideologues. We hurt ourselves when we stick to such stereotypes.

Or just keep telling yourself they're all nuts and we need to bomb, if that makes you feel smarter.