If it was easy, everyone could do it

OP-ED: The Afghan Imperative, By DAVID BROOKS, New York Times, September 24, 2009

Very nice and sensible analysis.

Key bit:

These are the realistic choices for America's Afghanistan policy -- all out or all in, surrender the place to the Taliban or do armed nation-building. And we might as well acknowledge that it's not an easy call. The costs and rewards are tightly balanced. But in the end, President Obama was right: "You don't muddle through the central front on terror. ... You don't muddle through stamping out the Taliban."

Since 1979, we have been involved in a long, complex conflict against Islamic extremism. We've fought this ideology in many ways in many places, and we shouldn't pretend we understand how this conflict will evolve. But we should understand that the conflict is unavoidable and that when extremism pushes, it's in our long-term interests to push back -- and that eventually, if we do so, extremism will wither.

Afghanistan is central to this effort partly because it could again become a safe haven to terrorists, but mostly because of its effects on the stability of Pakistan. As Stephen Biddle noted in a recent essay in The American Interest, the Taliban is a transnational Pashtun movement active in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is part of a complex insurgency trying to topple the Pakistani regime.

Pakistan has a fragile government with an estimated 50 or more nuclear weapons. A Taliban conquest in Afghanistan would endanger the Pakistani regime at best, create a regional crisis for certain and lead to a nuclear-armed Al Qaeda at worst.

A Taliban reconquest would also, it should be said, be a moral atrocity from which American self-respect would not soon recover.

Proponents of withdrawal often acknowledge the costs of defeat but argue that the cause is hopeless anyway. On this, let me note a certain pattern. When you interview people who know little about Afghanistan, they describe an anarchic place that is the graveyard of empires. When you interview people who live there or are experts, they think those stereotypes are rubbish.

Where I differ: when Brooks gets to talking about Pakistan, I switch to Coll's analysis that says we stay on India's behalf more than Pakistan's. India is the great connector for South Asia.

Extending the argument so is harder, I realize.

But if you want easy, don't play Leviathan.