Are we going to deal with the real Iran situation?

OP-ED: The power, and threat, of Iran, By Alastair Crooke, Los Angeles Times, October 1, 2009

Excellent analysis:

The crook of the logic:

[Obama] is not facing just the issue of Iran's nuclear program. This program is rolled into a more substantive and sensitive issue, one at the heart of the Iranian approach to negotiations: whether Israel and the U.S. -- nuclear weapons issue apart -- are able to come to terms with an Iran that is, and will be, a preeminent power in the region.

At present, these two issues have been conflated. Iran has signaled on various occasions that the nuclear issue could be resolved, but first it wants to know the answer to the wider issue: Can the U.S. bring Israel to accept Iran as a principal regional power? Can the U.S. accept such an outcome?

All here in the region understand the significance of this question: It is not just the nuclear weapon possibility that concerns Israel; it is the fact of Iranian conventional military power too. Already it is the conventional military power of Iran and its allies that is circumscribing Israeli conventional military freedom of action in the region. What we are dealing with is whether Israel and, by extension, the U.S., can accept that Israel will no longer enjoy its hitherto absolute conventional military dominance in the region.

This is, at bottom, the choice facing Obama: He can pursue a real solution, one that will have to acknowledge painful new realities and accept new forces arising in the region that inevitably will shift strategic balances. Or he can continue to try to contain them and risk a polarized and unstable Middle East.

The U.S. is slowly reducing its options through the Pittsburgh elevation of the nuclear file to an "ultimatum" choice. Perhaps Obama believes that in this way he will relieve pressure from Israel for unilateral military action. Perhaps he sees a powerful, conventionally equipped Iran as a threat to Arab allies.

To insist that Iran abandon altogether the nuclear fuel cycle is now probably unrealistic. Iran already has it. To set as an objective that Iran must never acquire the technology that would allow it to speedily move to weapons capacity at some future point in time is also unrealistic. But to bomb is even less a solution.

It seems, then, that we are heading to increasing sanctions on Iran. But these too are likely to be ineffective, as most specialists already admit. Such a policy will again polarize the region, split it, increase tensions and contribute to further isolating America and Europe in the Muslim world.

Despite the rhetorical stance of some Arab governments, the Arab and Muslim street -- and a number of states faced with Western escalation against Iran -- are more likely to perceive the conflict as one in which the West is seeking to weaken a Muslim rival in order to maintain Israel's military hegemony. Sentiment will turn against the West and Israel.

In short, the U.S. will again be boxed into an ineffective and unpopular policy.

Bingo!

My argument for five years now: Iran has maneuvered itself effectively into this position. We either deal with this reality or pretend the lid can be kept on the box.

But just as important to realize: this is a failed revolution deep into its Brezhnevian funk, with a Solidarnosc-like popular rebellion in the works.

In sum, this is a manageable problem. We've been down this path before. No freaking out, please!

(Via WPR Media Roundup)