China will not rule the world

ARTICLE: How Do Japanese React to China's Rise? Depends on Their Age, By HIROKO TABUCHI, New York Times, October 1, 2009

ARTICLE: Chinese Economic Juggernaut Is Gaining on Japan, By HIROKO TABUCHI, October 1, 2009

Japan's rise and decline should serve as a grim warning to China right now.

Japan got old, but China will get older faster. Japan kept its environment relatively clean, China is trashing its own. Japan built its manufacturing power on excellent goods, China is fly-by-night by comparison (reading a book on that now).

In sum, China has so many huge hidden deficits incurred during its rise, that I think it will suffer future stagnation that makes Japan's seem tame, especially since China's political system is so brittle and unimaginative.

I guess I'm just responding to all this China-will-rule-the-world vibe connected with the 60th b-day celebration. As soon as I read stuff like that, the Irish in me says you're heading for a fall.

Comments

[PW]

I like to see how they deal with the pirates these days. Chinese people wish the govenment can do a better job than US did a few month ago. After the nice millitary show they put up there during the 60 b-day celebration, people at least expect the PLO can do decent job. "Come on!! these are just pirates."

I won't bet any on PLO side.

[Jack Straw]

Dr. Barnett,Photographer Lu Guang from the PRC has a photo series chronicling pollution in China. The pictures will break your heart, but I thought you would be interested in seeing some of the documentary evidence. It certainly supports your belief that China has significant internal contradictions it will have to overcome before it is ready to rule the world.

http://www.chinahush.com/2009/10/21/amazing-pictures-pollution-in-china/

(If there is a better place to send links rather than a comments section, please let me know.)