Endnotes for Great Powers, Chapter Two

Chapter 2. A Twelve-Step Recovery Program for American Grand Strategy

36. A world that rapidly doubles . . . to ensure either outcome than America.

The global middle class is currently estimated in the 25-30 percent range and is expected to increase to the 50-55 percent range over the next 10 to 15 years; see Moises Naim, "Can the World Afford a Middle Class? Yes, But It Will Be Awfully Expensive," Foreign Policy, March-April 2008.

37. In the best tradition of self-help programs . . . back to where we once belonged.

THE TWELVE STEPS OF ALCOHOLICS ANONYMOUS

1. We admitted we were powerless over alcohol--that our lives had become unmanageable.

2. Came to believe that a Power greater than ourselves could restore us to sanity.

3. Made a decision to turn our will and our lives over to the care of God as we understood Him.

4. Made a searching and fearless moral inventory of ourselves.

5. Admitted to God, to ourselves and to another human being the exact nature of our wrongs.

6. Were entirely ready to have God remove all these defects of character.

7. Humbly asked Him to remove our shortcomings.

8. Made a list of all persons we had harmed, and became willing to make amends to them all.

9. Made direct amends to such people wherever possible, except when to do so would injure them or others.

10. Continued to take personal inventory and when we were wrong promptly admitted it.

11. Sought through prayer and meditation to improve our conscious contact with God, as we understood Him, praying only for knowledge of His will for us and the power to carry that out.

12. Having had a spiritual awakening as the result of these steps, we tried to carry this message to alcoholics, and to practice these principles in all our affairs.

"A Brief Guide to Alcoholics Anonymous," Alcoholics Anonymous World Services, Inc., 1972, found online at www.aa.org/en_pdfs/p-42_abriefguidetoaa.pdf.

1. Admit that we Americans are powerless over globalization

38. So we Americans need . . . at suitably discounted prices.

See Thomas L. Friedman, Hot, Flat, and Crowded: Why We Need a Green Revolution--And How It Can Renew America (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2008).

2. Come to believe that only a bipartisanship . . . restore sanity to America's foreign affairs.

39. As Ronald Brownstein notes . . . in those first decades of modern America.

See Ronald Brownstein, The Second Civil War: How Extreme Partisanship Has Paralyzed Washington and Polarized America (New York: Penguin Press, 2007), pp. 27-56 ("The Age of Partisan Armies").

39. As the country moved deeper . . . the longest such period in American history.

See Brownstein, Second Civil War, pp. 57-91 ("The Age of Bargaining").

39. That age of bargaining yielded . . . subsequent rise of the "Reagan Republicans."

See Brownstein, Second Civil War, pp. 93-136 ("The Age of Transition").

39. Since that time we've seen . . . commands a serious majority.

See Brownstein, Second Civil War, pp. 137-74 ("The Rise of Hyperpartisanship").

40. Morris Massey, an expert on conflict . . . we discover a world larger than ourselves.

Massey's work appears to exist only on tape; see Morris Massey, What You Are Is Where You Were When, Program 1 of The Massey Triad, found online at www.enterprisemedia.com/product/00121/massey_triad.html.

3. Make the decision to coordinate all elements . . . that we have collectively defined.

43. While it is technically . . . a third pillar alongside diplomacy and defense."

See Lael Brainard and Patrick Cronin, Codirectors, Brookings-CSIS Task Force: Transforming Foreign Assistance for the 21st Century, "Executive Recommendations," found online at www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/articles/2006/fall_foreign_assistance_reform_brainard/fall_foreign_assistance_reform_brainard.pdf.

43. With a current portfolio . . . WWII to have a modest foreign policy agenda.

On this, see Lael Brainard, "A Unified Framework for U.S. Foreign Assistance" (pp. 1-32) and "Organizing U.S. Foreign Assistance to Meet Twenty-first Century Challenges" (pp. 33-66) in Brainard, ed., Security by Other Means: Foreign Assistance, Global Poverty, and American Leadership (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2007).

44. Seeing them as such, I'm less interested in "supersizing" State . . . cabinet department.

I was one of several dozen experts who testified to the HELP (Helping to Enhance the Livelihood of People Around the Globe) Commission; see their report, "Beyond Assistance: The HELP Commission Report on Foreign Assistance Reform," December 2007, found online at www.helpcommission.gov/portals/0/Beyond%20Assistance_HELP_Commission_Report.pdf.

45. When almost 90 percent of your officers say . . . and platforms third.

See the polling data in "The U.S. Military Index," Foreign Policy, March-April 2008, found online at ww.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4198.

45. And when over 90 percent of your casualties . . . in treasure--and blood.

A good source of casualties by month is provided by GlobalSecurity.org and found online at www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iraq_casualties.htm.

46. Now, as the real push comes to shove . . . for these purposes the whole time?

On this sad state of affairs, see David Morgan and Kristin Roberts, "U.S. Seeks Bigger Role Assisting Pakistani Forces," Reuters, February 6, 2008.

4. Make a searching and fearless moral inventory of the "global war on terror."

46. Most crucial is that al Qaeda's brutal tactics . . . support throughout the Islamic world.

See Pew Global Attitudes Project polling on this trend, located online at pewglobal.org/.
47.

According to experts who track such trends . . . will be far more religious than the last.

See Laurie Goodstein, "More Religion, but Not the Old-Time Kind," New York Times, January 9, 2005.

48. The opposite of war isn't peace, it's creation.

A line from Jonathan Larson's 1996 Broadway musical, Rent, specifically from the song "La Vie Boheme."

49. Foreign direct investment flows to the Middle East . . . quadrupled since 2000.

See Roula Khalaf, "Boomtime in Lands of Oil and Money: The Rise in the Oil Price Is Driving Investment Growth," Financial Times, November 20, 2007.

50. That demographic . . . Middle East will "middle-age" over the next quarter-century.

See Graham Fuller's paper, "The Youth Crisis in Middle Eastern Society" (Clinton, MI: Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, 2004).

51. And we'd better . . . time is on our side--but not forever.

See Richard Jackson and Neil Howe, The Graying of the Great Powers: Demography and Geopolitics in the 21st Century (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2008), pp. 133-41.

51. The same goes for Islamic youth . . . infuriate their parents.

Cathy Lynn Grossman, "Tension Between Sunnis, Shiites Emerging in USA," USA Today, September 25, 2007.

51. Turkey's the "lead goose" in this formation . . . within the framework of modern life.

See Christopher Dickey and Owen Matthews, "The New Face of Islam: A Critique of Radicalism Is Building Within the Heart of the Muslim World," Newsweek, June 9, 2008.

52. History says that as long as your population . . . democratic political systems.

On this point, see Richard P. Cincotta, "How Democracies Grow Up: Countries with Too Many Young People May Not Have a Fighting Chance at Freedom," Foreign Policy, March-April 2008.

5. Admit to the world and to ourselves the exact nature of our mistakes in Iraq and Afghanistan.

54. What did that legacy cost us?

See Global Security.org for casualty data, found online at www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iraq_casualties.htm.

6. We are entirely ready to work with the international community . . . wartime injustice.

57. America's relationship with the ICC . . . render us exempt from its prosecution.

On this subject, see the Coalition for the International Criminal Court, "US Bilateral Immunity or So-called "Article 98" Agreements," Global Policy Forum, April 18, 2003, found online at www.globalpolicy.org/intljustice/icc/2003/0606usbilaterals.htm.

57. Good example: The ICC has indicted Sudanese . . . ethnic cleansing in Darfur.

See Romesh Ratnesar, "The Don Quixote of Darfur," Time, November 12, 2007.

8. Make a list of all the great powers . . . become willing to make concessions to them all.

60. Vice President Dick Cheney stated that the long war . . . administrations to come."

See "Interview of the Vice President by Richard Wolffe, Newsweek Magazine," Office of the Vice President, January 28, 2007, found online at www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/01/20070128.html.

62. Right now there's nothing in the Middle East . . . James Baker, argued, there should be.

See James A. Baker III and Lee H. Hamilton, The Iraq Study Group Report: The Way Forward--A New Approach (New York: Vintage, 2006), pp. 58-64.

9. Make direct overtures to violent nonstate actors . . . would damage existing alliances.

This section began as an unclassified report that I authored for U.S. Strategic Command in January 2008 as part of its ongoing study of violent nonstate actors.

10. Continue to review our goal of accelerated democratization . . . promptly admit it.

67. Princeton economist Alan Krueger . . . more likely to turn to terrorist tactics."

Alan B. Krueger, What Makes a Terrorist: Economics and the Roots of Terrorism (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007), p. 7.

67. But since almost 90 percent of attacks occur . . . killed by lightning than by al Qaeda.

See Krueger, Terrorist, p. 71; and John Muller, "A False Sense of Insecurity?: How Does the Risk of Terrorism Measure Up Against Everyday Dangers?" Regulation, Fall 2004.

68. Indeed, numerous studies today note . . . the greater that country's civil liberties.

The top quarter of countries, according to size of the middle class, is over 90 percent democratic, whereas the bottom quarter is less than 50 percent; see William Easterly, The White Man's Burden: Why the West's Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good (New York: Penguin Press, 2006), pp. 124-25.

68. If you attempt to short-circuit . . . radical extremists prevail.

On this point, see Fareed Zakaria, The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad (New York: W. W. Norton, 2003).