The inevitable redirect

Bush announces he's passing off Iraq to the next prez (quelle surprise!) and starting a modest ramp-up on Afghanistan.

Obama will complain but it's sort of what he's been asking for. It's also not that different from the McCain position.

Wiggle room in both instances narrows dramatically: Iraq wants us out (combat-wise) by 2011 and Afghanistan clearly wants more help. Both have to happen--for many logical reasons.

All campaign rhetoric aside, this is how it goes down. You can argue the sked in terms of months and the bodies in terms of brigades, but reality is driving these choices more than America's decision-makers.