Q&A: Afghanistan
Friday, September 12, 2008 at 2:11AM Stuart Abrams wrote:
I would be interested in hearing TPMB's take on increased violence in Afghanistan. 10 dead French soldiers suggests one thing to me: there won't be French soldiers in Afghanistan much longer. Seems to me that the Taliban is taking advantage of a window to ramp up the violence, possibly targeting non-US NATO forces whose commitment to a long-term stay is shaky, before US can draw-down forces from Iraq to redeploy them in Afghanistan. The election may have some impact on this since this is a key component of Obama's position. I have heard some arguments from neocons suggesting that the long-term commitment in Afghanistan was a mistake, that there was "mission creep" from a quick take-out of Al Qaeda bases by airstrikes into the kind of "nation building" that they don't like, and that they are concerned about conflicting demands for resources as between Iraq and Afghanistan, with Iraq being the higher priority in their view. What does Barnett think?
Tom replies:
I think all of this ramping up of negative activity is to be expected at the end of a very long, lame-duck presidency reflective of America's enduring strategic tie-down in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The big fight ahead will be between those who want a continuation of the war on terror logic (shifting from Iraq to Afghanistan) and those more intrigued with the return of big war possibilities with Russia (we already see the big-ticket programs of record hoping to get well in the Pentagon's defense acquisition battlespace as a result of new fears about Russia).
For Obama, it gets a bit weird, because he's always pushed for the Afghanistan redirect as a sign of his toughness, while McCain has pushed staying the course in Iraq as his sign. Now, with Iraq winding down (thank God), McCain will be tempted to run his League of Democracies idea to ground. If he does that, plus still argues for a war on terror as the central reality of his proposed presidency, then he's going to risk seeming like all conflict, all the time, and that can be a hard sell to a weary public.
Reader Comments