McCain's gains

PRESS RELEASE: Reuters/Zogby Poll: McCain Makes a Move, Takes 5-Point Lead Over Obama, Zogby International, August 20, 2008

Since I've linked to Zogby in the past regarding Obama's lead (electoral), it's only fitting to note the shift that's occurred in August.

Obama's passivity since the overseas trip has a lot of Dems worried. Zogby is right: McCain is throwing all the punches right now.

Other forces at work?

The bloom had to come off the Obama rose at some point. So in some ways, better to slump in August than October. But the combo of the vacation and Russia/Georgia worked well for McCain. The vote remains a referendum on Obama, and McCain is successfully expanding the "no" pool.

Now that Obamania has been diminished, we're back to the usual Boomer-era dynamic of incredibly close elections. As Ron Brownstein puts it, we are a closely but deeply divided polity right now.

Comments

[Lexington Green]

Whoever wins, it would have been bad for him and bad for country for Obama to coast to victory.

A real, tough, contested election is good for all parties and good for the voting public. It works the muscles.

[Anonymous]

exactly, Lex! i voted for Gore and Kerry, but it can be argued that part of the reason the Bush Admin sucked so bad was because of poor competition from the Dems! we need two strong parties for this thing to work well.

[outback71]

I wondered if the European Tour was a bad idea. While Obama wooing the crowds in Berlin, millions back home in Pocatello, Santa Fe and Erie had to be asking, 'Excuse me, I thought this election was about the issues in my life".

It was right at this time when his campaign stalled....well before the conventions.

This is a good thing. The whole cultish rock star marketing was getting a bit creepy. We need to see now if he can talk honestly in a straight forward manner about the issues the USA faces in the next decade..... hope and change just isn't enough anymore.

[purpleslog]

The Gov. Palin pick seems to have put Sen. Obama and his team on tilt - they are acting flustered and wacky. That is not a comforting indicator of how a Pres. Obama would react to a real crises.

[VoteWithTroops.com]

Obama is more nuanced (meaning less principled to us regular folks) but not as experienced or principle based as even the GOP VP choice - Palin. Sarah bitterly clings to her guns, religion and babies (with her offsprings' flaws and all). Most of America gets it, as the polls reflect.

[Anonymous]

VWT: baloney. both sides have some general principles and a lot of political expediency. claiming more principle for your side is pure, myopic partisanship. i could line up as many Dems to say the opposite thing.

[VoteWithTroops.com]

Thanks Sean,November 4th, 2008 will reveal what most Americans think about our (yours and mine) "myopic partisanship". Time will tell.

[Mark in Texas]

Sean

One of the things that prevents the United States from having two strong parties that would make our political system work better is that Democrats can count on ~90% of black voters regardless of what the Democrats or Republicans do to appeal to that group.

I suspect that the Democrats would be significantly less left wing if they could not count on this block of unearned votes every election. Actually, if the votes of black Americans were up for grabs, I suspect that the Republicans might be somewhat less right wing as well.