Next-war crowd fights back

ARTICLE: "A battle over 'the next war': Many military officers are pushing back against Defense Secretary Gates' focus on preparing for more 'asymmetric' fighting rather than for a large, conventional conflict," by Julian E. Barnes and Peter Spiegel, Los Angeles Times, 21 July 2008.

As you would expect, Mattis has the killer quotes (from my perspective):

"I think that nation-state and conventional war is in a state of hibernation," said Marine Gen. James N. Mattis, who commanded U.S. forces in Fallouja in 2004. "I don't think it's gone away, but the most likely threats probably today are not going to be conventional or from another state."

Mattis argues that the current fight is not an interlude.

"I recognize some people want to say: 'Let's hold our breath. The irregular world will go away, then we can get back to good old soldiering again,' " he said. "Unfortunately, in war, the enemy gets a vote."

And the Army's TRADOC chimes in:

Maxie L. McFarland, the deputy chief of staff for intelligence at the Army's Training and Doctrine Command, predicts the Army will be involved in regional conflicts -- over energy resources, extremist movements or environmental changes -- in places of growing strategic importance, such as Nigeria.

Defense chief Gates wants to spend more on U.S. diplomacy
"The Army believes it has to prepare for warfare and conflict among local populations with unfamiliar cultures . . . in urban settings or harsh lawless areas," McFarland said. "We think this environment will require long-duration operations, at extended distances."

The big war comeback is classic and decidedly vague:

"If you want to avoid war, prepare for war," [Air Force Maj. Gen. (and lawyer) Charles] Dunlap said.

We live in the first truly globalized economy the world has ever known. Nothing that has come before has come anywhere near this level of connectivity and integrated production chains--nothing.

And yet we expect war to retain its pre-nuclear great-power flavor?

If you want to avoid war, work the peace.

On this point alone, it's worth Obama considering to keep Gates. I fear any Dem pick will simply give in to the Big War crowd to placate them and industry and to appear "tough" on defense.

Thanks to numerous readers for passing along.

Comments

[Jarrod Myrick]

Did the officer imply that England or France was a symmetrical threat?

[Louis Heberlein]

Again I say read The Proud Tower by Tuchman and the perspectives of leading U.S. and European newspapers from 1890-1910. The responsibilities of government, including military and foreign policy don't lend themselves to "either or" or even "both and" perspectives. If the players can't get beyond that we are likely to have trouble. Think, watch and adapt to realities and changes.