The magic number

The cynic and realist in me has always thought, and responded when asked, that if you get the casualty number below 20, or roughly half the number of the war months, then the question of withdrawal would evaporate.

Seeing the page 6 coverage of 18 deaths in May, that logic seems to be holding nicely.

As I said all along: the only measure is U.S. casualties. Progress or no within Iraq, so long as losses are perceived low, the time line stretches plenty. With reasonable progress, like we're getting, then we're into the very positive dynamic of accumulating time since the last great spasms of civil violence.

In that space we fill up, as much as possible, on economic development, with Enterra working the Kurds in the lead, setting the example for elsewhere.

And so long as our casualties stay low and stability spreads, then time is on our side and it becomes apparent to Iran that they have to start picking sides among the Shia in Iraq, no longer backing all in a hedging strategy.

And then the opportunities emerge, once Bush is gone and Ahmadinejad suffers election defeat.

Nothing overnight, but things progressing nicely, and no matter all the legit negatives you can toss at Petraeus, these are the only wins that matter, and so he gets plenty of credit.

Comments

[historyguy99]

When one looks into the details. 5 of those deaths were from non-hostile causes...one counted as being killed on leave in the U.S.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iraq_casualties_may08.htm

One is too many...but even our big cities haven't ever enjoyed a month without a murder..

[JFRiley]

I was just about to make the same point with regards to the non-hostile deaths. I too have argued this with my pessimistic friends over the last few years. Right or wrong, Americans have made casualties the barometer for success. Often gusts on Bills Maher would smugly declare that we “lost” because we were still taking casualties. I wonder what their arguments will be over the summer if the rate continues to fall. I assume they will have to stick with the only tune they can, and that’s “the Bush Lied” tune.I am very interested also to see if and how this will change the upcoming debates. Either way, with the Army being broke, I assume numbers start coming down regardless of who wins. McCain declares victory and brings them home, or Obama declares “enough’s enough” and brings them home. Same end state but a subtly different way to get there.

[jim]

So what is the minimum per 100,000 that a modern war/counterinsurgency can achieve? Just having 100,000+ young men and women driving and flying in helicopters guarantees some minumum # per month due to accidents. And disease will also claim some minumum #. And that's before any actual shooting starts.

Naively, I'd think it's hard to get below .5 per day while actually doing anything.

Our current 6 month running average is 1.22. The average for the whole war is 2.4 or so ... which really is astonishingly low.

It seems like our standard is almost, but not quite, impossible to achieve. A single helicopter crash will usually raise that rate above 1 per day for that month.

We've had a few months in 5 years where the rate went below 1 per day. But in most months there are accidents and the normal bad luck of bad things happenning, which raises the rate to at least 1.2 or so.

[Ted O'Connor]

This War has not been "sold" to the American public. Now as casualties drop the economy is reeling. I see the monetary cost of the War becoming the real issue in 2009. If Dems get in, you will see new "revelations" of financial misconduct, graft and waste that occurred under the previous administration. None of this will bring any of the money back but it will have an impact on public opinion. I can tell you that what I see in San Diego is not good. Foreclosures are numerous, new cars are not selling, restaurants are hurting for business and gas is up to $4.40 a gallon. There is a commercially zoned street near my home that is used by private citizens trying to sell their unwanted cars. We used to see 4 or 5 cars parked there with "For Sale" signs on a weekend. In the last couple of months the number of cars, trucks and SUVs for sale has increased dramatically. I counted 30 vehicles Sunday. Most could not be expected to get very good gas mileage. People are hurting and if someone convinces them that our occupation of Iraq is the problem....we are outta there.

[Brad B.]

Like Tom said, none of these numbers really matter in the political debate for serveral reasons. One, as societies develop, they have greater intolerance for casualties. Secondly, since the war was sold so badly, people have even less tolerance for it. Finally, past successes like the Gulf War have set the bar pretty high.

Anyway, if anyone is looking for data, Page 11, Table 5 of this PDF document shows deaths per year from 1980 through 2006. It breaks down how many due to hostile action vs. accident and suicide. The whole documents has a ton of info, even by race, military branch, etc.

For instance, between the years 1980 and 1989 (if I did my math right) we lost 13,208 service personnel due to accidents alone! Or, one way of looking at it is this: We lost more military personnel in the first 5 years of the 1980's due to accidents than we lost in the first 5 years of the Iraq War/Occupation due to hostile action.

As our military has gotten smaller and safer, that accident number has dropped drastically. In 1980, with a military of just over 2 million, we lost 1,556 to accident while in 2006, with a military of just under 1.5 million, we lost 530 due to accidents.

[Patrick]

So we are all thinkin' no attack on Iran by US or Israel before November (or January 20). That would change things, wouldn't it.

[Gilbert Garza]

Engage your people in the core problems, get dirty, get bruised, make changes, stay with it. Tolerate the non-engaged, defend against the contra-engaged. Hope for opportunity and favorable events. Plan for lucky and good strategy choices and people choices. Let them work. Some day knowledgeable people may graciously and generously credit your intentions, your effort, your competence. They may recognize and applaud the important differences you and they have made.