Exploit the crisis

OP-ED: Missing the Market Meltdown, By Amory B. Lovins, Newsweek, May 26, 2008

While I think the nukes v. renewable choice will end up being a false dichotomy for many emerging markets (they'll end up choosing both, bypassing big nukes for smaller ones), Amory--as always--makes me optimistic about market responses.

Behavior is changing all over the place in response to higher prices.

If we're smart to not assume some rescuing, 1980s-like collapse of oil prices coming down the road, and the Middle East recognizes it can't waste this windfall (in terms of local job creation) like it did the last one, and emerging markets like China act like they know they can't possibly replicate our resource-intensive rise, then this "oil crisis" ends up being exactly what the world needs now.

"Ah, but doesn't this crisis make your entire vision untenable!!!!!???"

Go to the back of the class with that silly nonsense. Crises are not to be wished away, much less avoided.

They are to embraced for what they are: incentive-laden opportunities.

Grand strategy is not crisis avoidance, but crisis exploitation.

Comments

[Vinay Gupta]

Cheap solar, and now with these ultracapacitor-based batteries coming online, cheap wind. Nukes are going to be too expensive, and nuclear weapons proliferation, if only in the form of dirty bombs, is always going to be the big reason for never, ever mixing nuclear power and political instability, grass roots insurgency, potential for false-flag operations, or any other situation where people could be tempted to weaponize them.

Doesn't leave many places where it makes sense to put nukes, even new-style ones.

[stuart abrams]

I am often struck by the lack of sophistication in business and economics demonstrated by the neocons. I was watching Christopher May interview Robert Kagan on CSpan last weekend, and May was in a tizzy about how we need government programs to eliminate our "dependence" on Mideast oil, saying that this should be the big issue in the Presidential campaign. Considering that conservatives are supposed to believe in free markets, I was struck by the assumption that we need government intervention in order to deal with something that is eminently amenable to market solutions. It is not really surprising, however, as most of the neocons have backgrounds as academics or career bureaucrats, or as politicians cashing in on government connections (Cheney at Halliburton), and few of them have any real experience in business.

[Louis Heberlein]

Realistic expectations: DOD demonstrates coal to liquid fuel conversion, safe mini-nuke plants on military bases, and various technologies for renewable energy and more efficient transmission and storage. The demonstrations are justified by national security interests. Then the technologies are shared with new core countries and justified by global environmental and social concerns. Meanwhile our political parties finally agree on major domestic initiatives like screwing in new light bulbs and recycling cooking fat for candles. ;-)

[farhad]

what makes or brakes a system(speacially in capitalist sys) is rate ofunempolyment.we all know that these offical claims of 5% or so are,false,and lies.in 2007-2008 there were 1 1/2 millions jobs created.there are about the same amount of legal & illegal workers that arelooking for jobs.there are 3 3/10 of million students that graduatedfrom high school,if only half of them look for job they will be 1.7 millions .in 2007,18 million rejestered in universities,if 20% graduate,there will be 3.6 millions looking for jobs,these stimates are fromPaul Greg Roberts,and John Williams has done a research that saysth unemployment rate is at 13%,i believe it is even higher.talk abouta meltdown.

[Hans Suter]

""Ah, but doesn't this crisis make your entire vision untenable!!!!!???" Go to the back of the class with that silly nonsense. Crises are not to be wished away, much less avoided. They are to embraced for what they are: incentive-laden opportunities. Grand strategy is not crisis avoidance, but crisis exploitation."

I call this rule number one. Most clients start saying:"We have a problem.", "Great", I answer,"means we have opportunities!".

[Michael]

I wouldn't say that nuclear NEVER makes sense. Countries which already have safe plants may as well let them finish their life span. Countries with lots of nuclear fuel laying around already processed (bomb cores come to mind) need something to do with them other than making more bombs. And countries with Thorium deposits would do well to figure out how to make economical thorium reactors to use it--especially if they don't get a huge amount of sunlight for renewables (*cough*Norway*cough*).