Cool visuals on world food issues/dynamics

ARTICLE: "The Economics of Hunger: A brutal convergence of events has hit an unprepared global market," by Anthony Faiola, Washington Post National Weekly Edition, 5-11 May 2008, p. 6.

ARTICLE: "In Mauritania, Evey Meal Becomes a Sacrifice," by Anthony Faiola, Washington Post National Weekly Edition, 5-11 May 2008, p. 9.

Graphic: The Global Grain Trade: The Haves and Have-nots

North America and former Soviet Union (FSU), South America and Oz/NZ are the big exporters:

-->NA imports 25m metric tons and sends out 130 (105 up)

-->FSU does 7 in and 28 out (21 up)

-->South America does 24 in and 42 out (18 up)

-->Oz/NZ does 1 in and 10 out (9 up)

Inward zones are:

-->East Asia takes 47 in and sends 5 out (42 down)

-->Middle East takes in 33 and sends out 3 (30 down)

-->North Africa takes in 30 and sends out 1 (29 down)

-->Sub-Saharan Africa takes in 20 and sends out 3 (17 down)

-->Europe takes 26 in and sends 15 out (11 down)

-->Southeast Asia takes in 20 and sends out 15 (5 down).

India just barely balances for now: takes in 7.5 and sends out 7.9, but India's ag production predicted to drop a large amount due to global warming.

So four big export hubs (North America, South America, FSU and Oz/NZ). Of those, NA and FSU likely to do best (meaning not too bad) with global warming.

The rest can all expect to be importing more.

Here's the kicker: so little of food actually traded across borders for now. Remember my column on dairy? Only 7 percent traded there. Same is true in other categories:

-->18 percent of wheat

-->14 percent of sorghum

-->12 percent of corn

-->7 percent of rice.

Tell me this won't be a major "flow," to use my PNM vernacular, in the 21st century.

I now know how to frame global warming.

Map in second story lists countries most dependent on food imports: all Gap except South Korea, Japan, and Norway. Amazing match with my map.

How regions compare:

-->North America imports 39 percent of total food

-->LATAM imports 27 percent

-->North Africa 68%

-->Sub-Saharan 71%

-->Middle East 76%

-->Europe and Central Asia 54% (weird category)

-->South Asia at 37%

-->East Asia and Pac at 53%.

I have Bradd Hayes working these slides already.

Huge long-term opportunity for Enterra: imagine all the rules that must be dynamically managed for future global food nets!?!?!

Comments

[William R. Cumming.]

Are the figures based on weight or value? A new book out discusses the mundane potatoe, the 4th largest food crop after maize, wheat, rice!

[Dan]

If you're right, the next 20-30 years will see an explosion in food markets - lots of countries seeking a better balance. And this is a big opportunity for standardizing rules (from ag subsidies to safety). Always a good thing.

The big question, though, is how this will impact ag policies for the future. Right now there's big emphasis on mono-culture, but I can't imagine that remains sustainable as demand grows. Countries are going to want to diversify, at least until the market stabilizes. Or maybe I'm way off.

[Louis Heberlein]

Food should not be thought of only as an economic commodity or short term consumer matter. A couple of big volcanoes could bring about a 1-3 year climate and ocean pollution situation that would cause significant starvation around the world ... except for Mormons of course.

[Wiredman]

The real question is are we going to resolve this through central planning or free markets? I suspect, initially it will be through central planning and that will fail as always.

I also suspect, the reason for so called food shortages is because of government interference in the free markets. Direct subsidies or regulation in Asian and European countries that hamper free market forces and indirect interference as with the bio-fuels subsides.

[Anonymous]

Wiredman: our American ag subsidies and policies are as bad as any and worse than many