The Naxalites are coming! The Naxalites are coming!

ARTICLE: "In India, Death to Global Business: How a violent—and spreading—Maoist insurgency threatens the country's runaway growth," by Manjeet Kripalani, BuisnessWeek, 19 May 2008, p. 042.

Another reason, it seems, why India won't catch China: it still has radical Maoists while poor China does not!

Here's the danger, though:

Just when India needs to ramp up its industrial machine to lock in growth—and just when foreign companies are joining the party—the Naxalites are clashing with the mining and steel companies essential to India's long-term success.

Maoists in Nepal and India, while China and Vietnam go über-capitalist.

What a world! What a world!

More seriously, "shining India" has got a real Gap situation on its hands, mostly centered in the East.

Funny, the Western navy in Mumbai was always considered the Brit/US version, and the Eastern navy (I honestly don't know where it's based) was always considered the Soviet version. I guess the politics skews that way too.

New Delhi, we are told, treats the 12k armed and 13k sympathizer population as a law & order problem.

Comments

[Ben]

Are they lowballing the numbers of 'insurgents'? I thought the ratio of supporters to fighters in insurgencies is much greater. May be that they are a brash lot and don't mind getting in to the fray...

[Vinay Gupta]

Think of it as a sign of political freedom. Because the Indians actually have a relatively thriving political culture, groups like the Naxalites continue to be active. Yes, there are crackdowns, but nothing compared to what similar groups would encounter in China.

And, in Nepal, these guys came to the negotiating table, eventually, took power, and started making changes.

In Kerala, their democratically elected local brand of communism isn't the Naxalite brand, but has produced a state that has essentially developed world demographics (low birthrate, very long lifespan) and literacy on an average income of some $300 a year.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerala#Health

So, yeah. Messy democracy sometimes comes back with extremely interesting answers that the totalitarian states miss.

[Robert L]

FYI, the Eastern Naval Command of the Indian Navy is at Visakhapatnam.

[zenpundit]

hi Tom,

Re: Naxalites

Let me put in a kind word and an even stronger recommendation for Shlok Vaidya's Naxalite Rage site:

http://naxaliterage.com/

Just FYI - Shloky is also a newly minted analyst for the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

[Shlok Vaidya]

Thanks Mark.

Tom -

The work I did in country reveals that the problem is much worse than what's being let on. The administration, and the police forces, have no clue how to react. Plus it lacks the "sexy" factor of Islamic terror, so talent isn't being sent its way.

A great book on the topic: Red Sun: Travels in Naxalite Country by Sudeep Chkaravarti. He gets the background and status right, but misses the future by a mile.

Rough times ahead.