On the motives in Mumbai

It couldn't get much clearer: the terrorists wanted to sever India's growing globalization ties in general and specifically those with the West. While India is no stranger to such terror (indeed, it can claim to have endured more experience in this regard than any other great power over the last quarter-century, with no other even coming close), these attacks seem to signal a new era for the nation: like a China, India becomes increasingly targeted for its role in embracing and spreading globalization. Thus its need to have a globally conscious and responsible military--meaning an end to the strategic myopia over Jammu & Kashmir.

If the upshot of these attacks is that India makes such a decision to recast its grand strategic vision so as to make it more commensurate with its expanding global economic presence, then this System Perturbation will have served its historic purpose--just not in the way its perpetrators imagined.

In that sense, the cruel realist in me says the timing could not have been better--on many levels.

Comments

[Mark in Texas]

While we still don't know who is responsible for the attacks in Mumbai, I think that there is certainly a reasonable possibility that it was launched by the more extreme elements within the ISI in order to stave off the recently announced purge of pro Taliban officers within that organization. The idea being that if Pakistan is on the brink of war with India, the new government is going to be too busy to make major changes in the intelligence agency. That would make the Indians essentially extras in what is essentially an internal Pakistani drama.

[Haimson]

And they targeted Jews why?

[Marc]

"If..."

What makes you think that this doesn't ignite a veritable regional firestorm?If the populace in India gets angry enough...Chances seem 50:50 right now, no?

Still, I hope your are right.

[Mishri]

As an Indian hoping for the best, I would really hope that your theory proves true: that the Indian government, defense forces and intelligence agencies re-cast themselves in a way that benefits and befits India's new global position/status.

But the cynical Indian in me knows they'll just keep bickering and vacillating between fear-mongering against Muslims and giving in to terrorists.

[Javaid Akhtar]

India has a democracy and the political parties have to deal with the political fallout of the attacks before they can take sensible measures.Like in Israel, where only a hawk like Sharon could deliver a deal with the Palestinians ( if he had continued) that seemed credible with voters , India needs the Hawks ( BJP ) back in power.They could re-orient themselves into a less confrontational state (vis a vis Kashmir ) without losing face with the electorate.The Congress party is like Olmert .Another crisis and it will over react like Olmert did in the Lebanese war.Doves over-react because they don't have the credibility with the electorate .Another attack on the credibility on the Congress' ability to protect India and we might see such a catastrophic overeaction but Pakistan has done enough to show that it is sincere in its motives.Remember, Zardari lost his wife just recently.This is close to home to them.The terrorists also don't seem capable of holding large 'shows' quickly one after another, not quick enough to weaken / cloud the political classes of India into over-reacting.So, nothing really changes.Unless Pakistan win the NWP ( theres a chance)Pakistan settles Kashmir ( and India reciprocates)Maybe Pakistan is more the key for the future and the Indians the spectators.

[Louis Heberlein]

The news indicates there were only 10 terrorists involved. I doubt that. Others, maybe 10 or more, were probably helped to meld into the survivor victims, or into the observers and responders outside. The professionalism of the planning and implementation of the assaults indicates that some terrorists would be designated to make an after action report, and lessons learned, to their parent organization.

Pakistan, India, and Core countries need to think this incident's objectives out before reacting.