The New Core creates the new energy rules?

ARTICLE: "Thais Lead Drive to Natural-Gas Cars: Subsidies, Volatility of Oil Prices Spur Move Even as a Campaign Starts in U.S. to Get Americans to Switch," by Patrick Barta, Wall Street Journal, 21 October 2008.

Tycoons and environmentalists combine to try and talk Americans into switching to natural gas cars. Success is unlimited--outside of Utah.

But in many developing countries, the switch is already on, driven by the volatile price of gasoline, the accessibility of natural gas, hefty consumer subsidies and concern about the environment.

Thailand, SE Asian emerging market is a prime case: 40k n.g. cars and trucks bought in the last six months. Predictions of a rough tripling of the n.g. fleet by 2012, to 330k.

They are hot seller. One local prof pays less than $2k to have her Nissan sedan converted. She now fills her tank for $3.

Here's the leadership of the New Core: Pakistan, Brazil and Argentina each have more than 1.5m such vehicles. India is closing in on a million, and China is promoting the cars heavily in cities.

T. Boone is excited.

Honda has n.g. Civics for sale here, but few buyers for now.

Thailand has oil, but has even more natural gas.

When we did our energy futures game with Cantor Fitzgerald in 2000, one thing I remember hearing from many experts is that we have no idea how much gas is out there, because we don't really look for it, instead just finding "associated gas" as we search for oil.

So maybe T. Boone is barking down the right hole.

Tell me otherwise.

Comments

[Don]

One caution about Natural Gas.Natural Gas extraction requires huge amounts of water and hydraulic fracturing introduces many toxins into the drinking water system . In many places this means destroying the aquifers to get to the natural gas.

[large]

Here's the "American Otherwise", Tom. CNG fueled autos won't go over with Americans, at least any who have ever driven a 275 HP V8 or V6. Pretty much the same reason they won't buy 46 mpg coupes and smart cars.

A similar displacement automobile on CNG, literally needs to be dropped off a cliff to accelerate. While they are "Clean" they're neither efficient or cheap. CNG and Propane power conversions have been available to the public for over 50 years, and no one is creating a large demand for those kits . .

That being said, those in foreign countries who have never driven a gasoline powered car won't know what they're missing . . and they'll buy CNG power out of pure utility.

T. Boone likes his CNG plan because he owns most of the natural gas in Texas . . nothing altruistic there . .

[CBiggs]

If you think the housing is in crisis nobody's counting the cars, yet. Car sales are down not because the big three aren't building cars anyone wants to buy. Sales are down due to negative equity: 2004 Land Rover Discovery $40,000 new, now trading at $4500. Its not just the poor quality, bad gas mileage wrap, the US is "buried" in its cars worse than housing.

for people to buy cars you're looking at tacking on $4000 to $6000 to the price of the new on.

[Mark in Texas]

The main reason that Americans are slow to adapt CNG fueled vehicles is that the EPA requires certification of every engine type in every vehicle every year. Certification costs about $200,000. That is why you can get a car converted to run on natural gas for about $600 in Thailand but in order to get a Ford F-150 legally converted will cost you ~$18,000.

You can get your vehicle converted with a kit that has not been certified by the EPA for a couple of thousand dollars and it will work fine and produce cleaner exhaust. Problem is that if the EPA does decide to go after you, you have tampered with the emission control system on your engine which makes you liable to $5000 per day fines.

All you have to do to get Americans to use natural gas powered cars is to stop threatening them with financial ruin if they do so. Doctors take an oath to "First do no harm". Perhaps bureaucrats at the EPA should take a similar oath.