The new look review on Afghanistan, corresponding to Iraq's new look review on America

THE WORLD: "A New Approach to Afghanistan: Obama is looking at a regional strategy that would include Iran," by Karen DeYoung, Washington Post National Weekly Edition, 17-23 November 2008.

NEWS ANALYSIS: "In Baghdad, Debating Post-U.S. Outlook: Concerns that a government will retain power," by Campbell Robertson and Stephen Farrell, New York Times, 21 November 2008.

So Obama's review (and one would assume Petraeus is political enough that CENTCOM's ongoing review won't get too far away from this logic, as should Mullen's own rethink in the Joint Staff) looks to draw Iran in on Afghanistan and encourage Kabul to keep talking to the Taliban, while upping the effort on AQ in the FATA. The upshot? We'll get a whole lot more realistic on what nation-building should aspire to in Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, Baghdad's many factions contemplate life beyond a controlling U.S. military presence. It won't be pretty. It just needs to remain decently stable.

Inside the parliament, the fear logically surfaces that the Maliki government will become a pawn of the Shiia majority.

So don't be surprised if the Sunni and Kurds have their own particular set of desires vis-a-vis the U.S. military presence once the all-important "combat troops" are removed come 2011.

I see trip-wire troops being left behind for many years--if we're smart enough to say yes and the Sunni and Kurds are smart enough to ask.

Comments

[Ted O'Connor]

Right now I see Iraq as a man walking with a pair of crutches. The crutches are uncomfortable, and the man would like to get rid of them. And yes, analogy lovers, we are the crutches. We have been there five years. The military, the contractors, the engineers, the diplomats all have had an enormous influence on that country. Take those crutches away and see what happens. I don't know if the man will fall down, but I see a lot of lurching and staggering ahead. The man may need to reach out for something else to steady himself...and it will be interesting to see what that might be.

[hof1991]

So the Kurds sign their own oil deals, have their own military, set up their own development network and when our troops are supposed to leave "Iraq", they will have their own overt foreign policy. It is always when the obvious becomes overt that trouble begins.

[Tom Barnett]

Hof:

Think federated, very softly partitioned.

California has its own foreign policy, deal venues and military too.

Done well, everyone gets happy.