Crisis and the next administration
Monday, October 27, 2008 at 2:04AM ARTICLE: Around the World, the Signs Of Slowdown Spiral Outward, By Steven Mufson and Blaine Harden, Washington Post, October 25, 2008; Page A01
In many ways, a global recession is a good thing. Globalization had been expanding so fast for so long that a lot of weird dynamics had crept into the mix, as they always do in a lengthy boom. I started to wonder about the sustainability of it all when the food prices jumped following the oil. While demand was rising for both, there just didn't seem to be the underlying short-term need to justify the price cost. Then you read about China and Saudi Arabia buying up arable land globally and that just sounded nuts.
Now all the nutty and panicked behavior is switched to the other direction: all forecasts being lowered and whatnot.
The main upsides are that we're far more likely to get a Doha agreement, a host of much-needed new rules on governing inter-market financial flows, etc.
Eventually, all these new rules were going to have to happen. The longer the boom went, the worse the correction would be, and the bigger the flood of new rules. So sooner, as cruel as it sounds, is always better, because the bigger the volume of new rules, the more likely it is that you overdo and get a lot of things wrong.
Commensurately, we're looking at a similar backlash political/rule-set effect here in the States, AKA the wholesale losses for the Republicans (perceived party in power even though they already lost both Houses, so this just completes the 2006 election). Here, it feels like intense caboose-breaking, or a populist nastiness that may well end up being hard to control. This is arguably Obama's real challenge.
The larger upside to me is that you want a lot of churn going on when a new president takes office, whomever he or she is, because a lot of good work and course correction can get done early in a first term.
So 2009 will be a most interesting year.
For me personally, the churn can't hurt a book that preaches a systemic re-calibration of how we view and interact with the world. The downturn will place a crimp on any calls for activism abroad, but the weird thing is, I sort of anticipate that in the book without realizing it. I don't call for any "big push" in any USG sphere--just the opposite. Even the usual misinterpretations of my message will be hard to generate with this book, because the military aspect is deeply contextualized within a far larger message.
I've been admittedly made nervous by the financial crisis along the lines of, "I worry the book will be dismissed because all that everyone will want to talk about is domestic economic recovery," which is right and smart and inevitable. But as this thing globalizes more intensely than I thought it could at this point in globalization's expansion (we always tend to underestimate the connectivity already achieved--even me), I worry about that less. A Europe might get more insular, but not America. We're simply too engaged and have come to understand--through this crisis--the degree of that engagement and connectivity. Plus, even with Europe, they'll seek new international leadership for a go-slow period on globalization (accompanied with new rules), so I think I see some real ambition brewing with Brown, Sarkozy, Merkel, etc.
The one place I really worry about is China. I don't think their current leadership is up for much (remember, it's 4th Generation homebodies) other than pulling in their heads and hiding in their shell. Maybe a bit more from India, and hopefully more from Brazil. Another upside is that the air is deflating in Moscow's big head, so enough of that nonsense.
If anything, I find this crisis reveals the same playing field we thought we had before all this take-off got crazy: US still the center, Europe not as weak as assumed economically, and the BRIC not at all-powerful as assumed. So yeah, a new heightened role for Europe, as it's go-slow trumps our go-fast for a while (and thank God we have the fleshed-out alternative at hand, because--as always--competition is good), but it needs America desperately in that process because of our intense economic, productive and financial links, so hardly any dawning of a post-American age.
And that's not a bad thing whatsoever.
The big thing is, What do we do with this renewed opportunity for global leadership? Pull in our heads like the Chinese or act with a calm deliberation?
Thus my continued hopes for an Obama administration. This is his kind of crisis, not McCain's. We need the system thinker, the fox, the many-answers-to-every-question guy.
And he needs to lead.
Biden's point, however badly delivered, is totally moot. The testing crisis will be waiting for Obama.
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