Re-balancing the Sunni-Shia mix in Iraq

ARTICLE: "New Leaders Of Sunnis Make Gains In Influence: U.S.-Backed Fighters Find Empowering Role," by Sudarsan Raghavan, Washington Post, 8 January 2007, p. A1.

Here lie the seeds of the surge's possible destruction:

The United States is empowering a new group of Sunni leaders, including onetime members of former president Saddan Hussein's Baath Party, intelligence services and army, who are challenging established Sunni politicians for their community's leadership. The phenomenon marks a sharp turnaround in U.S. policy and the fortunes of Iraq's Sunni minority.

The new leaders are decidedly against Iraq's U.S.-backed, Shiite-led government, which is wary of the Awakening movement's growing influence, viewing it as a potential threat when U.S. troops withdraw. The mistrust suggests how easily last year's security improvements could come undone in a still-brittle Iraq.

So long as we dream of anything other than a loosely federated Iraq, where everyone controls their own and everyone else feels free of outside control, this potential security collapse will loom.

And that will be enough to scare away most FDI from all of Iraq--save the Kurdish region.

And that's a problem.

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[Louis Heberlein]

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