Split Sudan up, too

Looking Forward to "New Sudan"

Great post by Steve. Sudan may well decide to return to the pre-colonial status quo ante and split into a north and south. These two distinct countries never should have been combined.

When it happens, we can put it in the same basket as Yugoslavia and Iraq: fake states that naturally break down back into their constituent parts when globalization comes a knockin' and the most competent and ambitious want out of their dysfunctional union.

Comments

[Brian H]

The Chinese and Arabs will never permit the southern oil fields to slip out of their control. They've done their best to depop the best areas, and probably would like to do the same to the whole south.

[Michael]

I've already commented in more detail on Dan's thread, but it seems to me there's a more balanced approach to this. He and Brian are right about South Sudan's chances being bleak in a military confrontation, but that just means that Deangelis' comparison with Kurdistan runs both ways.

Both countries are weak compared with the forces arrayed against them. If they try to solve their problems with firepower, they'll lose-- occupied, slaughtered and/or stripped of their infrastructure and strategic resources. But if they keep their heads when dealing with friend and foe alike, they stand a chance.