China will be huge this century, America still number one

ARTICLE: A Chinese Century? Maybe It’s the Next One, By LESTER THUROW, New York Times, August 19, 2007

Great piece by Thurow, my wife's favorite economist (after Reich).

China's growth is stunning, especially considering the low initial base, but it's not as fantastic as Beijing presents or Washington wonks fear.

China will be huge this century, but America will remain number one.

Thanks to Bill Millan for sending this.

Comments

[Bill C.]

Looking at this a different way:

If China sees the Gap as its "natural ally" (instead of the USA) -- and the Gap sees China in a similar light, what are the implications for the 21st-Century?

Could this become the basis for calling the 21st-Century the Chinese Century?

[Jing]

Far be it from me to question your wife's taste in economists, but this Lester Thurow is by all accounts an innumerate idiot. No such direct correlation between economic growth and electricity production/consumption actually exists. The relationship is much more complex. Each economic nation-entity and indeed each locality will have their own distinct patterns

Using the same parameters he is, India would likely be experiencing sub 1% GDP growth and indeed negative growth between 2002-2003 due to a small decline in consumption.

The population of Guangdong is not anywhere close to 200 million.

In fact he is even wrong about China's present per capita GDP estimates. To arrive at his figures of per capita GDP in 2100 using a simple compound interest model of GDP growth, China's per capita income would have to be 50% of what they are presently at according to both the World Bank and the IMF.

The only thing this article proves is that the NYT editorial section remains useful only as toilet paper.

[Tom Barnett]

Well, Jing, you feedback reminds me of the old saw that says you can line up the world's economists end to end and never reach a conclusion!