Putin's economic success creates his own political challenges

POLITICS & ECONOMICS: "Crackdown Galvanizes Foes of Putin: Arrests, Beatings of Protesters May Unify Kremlin Opponents Ahead of Presidential Elections," by Alan Cullison and Guy Chazan, Wall Street Journal, 16 April 2007, p. A4.

Honestly, if I were to say read one column and one column only in the MSM, it would be the WSJ's "Politics & Economics." Since I don't always label it so, you probably don't realize that I cite it far more than anything or anyone else.

Great piece here that shows Putin's heavy hand on politics inevitably engenders resistance. For a while, the rising incomes and investments will keep most off the playing field, given the tumultuous 1990s, but those memories will fade and as economic confidence rises, so too will political demands for freedom.

It probably won't happen this election, but quite possibly during the administration of Putin's successor.

Good stuff to see, even better to track.

Don't worry. I keep all the 2x2 matrices in my head now.

That's what I want to teach in Vol. III.

Comments

[Hans Suter]

"the WSJ's "Politics & Economics." Thanks for the hint. I would love to hear more about your information habits.

[Patrick]

I just got back from Russia and visited the major cities and the interior. That country is a mess. I live in China and the contrast is enormous. With a decreasing population, a totally corrupt government, a President that's re-centralizing power after 1000 years of bad experiences with that---I'd be curious to know why Tom (or anyone) thinks Russia has any kind of decent future.

If the answer is oil--that seems like a guarantee that the country is really doomed and wealth will remain in the hands of a few. I went to Thailand immediately after Russia and it felt like I was leaving the Third World (Russia) to head back to the First World (Thailand). I was in Phuket 7 weeks after the Tsunami and the place looked better than just about everything I saw in Russia. Explain.

[Jarrod Myrick]

Patrick,

It's not oil, it's oil + gas. Do a Putin search in this blog, very compelling arguments. Downstream's the meme.

[Tom Barnett]

I would have to ask how many times over the years Patrick's bee to Russia.

I spent a summer thwre in 1985 and then visited for a week in 1995 and found the revitalization stunning. I doubt it's gone downhill in all the economic growth since, so I guess I'd have to ask about Patrick's points of comparison and expectations. I find a lot of China amazingly Third Worldish too. I mean, they have more people living in poverty than Russia has people--actually something like 2.5 times.

[Anonymous]

great answer, JR. here's to a few more searches...