Pulling plug out of the question

Matt Ockwood wrote in to ask:

Dr. Barnett, what is your response to House and Senate Dem. calls for immediate withdrawals? Do we stay and work leverage while talking with Iran etc, or just pull the plug?

Tom's reply:

Pulling plug out of question, but changing our presence open for debate. I think we should pull back from combat, go advisory, and stay over-the-horizon close in Kurdistan and Kuwait, meaning we go to more air-to-ground support ops, focus on training, and let the Sunni-Shiia fight play out some.

Then we'd have leverage over both Iran and Saudi Arabia instead of the other way around.

Bit of a bloodbath? Yes, but that much seems already set in motion. Question is how fast does it go? And how soon can we get neighbors (Syria, House of Saud, Iran) to work for stability instead of fighting us and each other through proxies?

Oh, and how many troops we waste trying to control sectarian violence in Iraq when our foreign policy encourages the same the region over?

I believe we're in a Balkans-like dissolution now, so managing that process realistically (meaning, don't stand in the way of the bullets any more than necessary) is the challenge we're up against now. That, and Bush's instinct to kow-tow to the Saudis.

In Congress, they should push funding limits that try to fence Bush in on any planned strikes on Iran. Dicking around on Iraq over the surge is counter-productive. Resolutions, if any, should focus on upcoming talks with Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iran concerning Iraq.

Comments

[michael]

I'm not a strategist, but going into the Iraq War I was sure that once Saddam was brought down, we'd immediately move to the dissolution of Iraq. Split the oil revenue by thirds for the next 10 years or else some direct per capita payments to citizens (much like casino revenues on Indian reservations).

With that, we'd have permanent bases in Kurdistan and the new Shia state and would give Iran a helluva incentive to engage with us.

The lack of stratgegic imagination in this administration is stuning...as Tom has pointed out repeatedly.

[The Globalizer]

It's time for a lot of talk and a lot of inaction. Balance the checkbook a bit.

[RKKA]

The trouble is, Bush/Cheney will never go for it. They're bad gamblers who react to losing a bet by doubling their next one, in the hope of winning it all back.

Left to themselves, Bush and Cheney will not stop wrecking our ground forces. Somebody must put the troops out of their reach, and Kurdistan isn't far enough.

[Jamie]

Out of "their" reach?

Who's reach? Bush and Cheney have authority of "reach" by their elected position.

I would argue that the Bush admin has shown some ability to compromise as of late. Talks with Iran&Syria. Talks with DPK.

Lets hope the admininstration reads Dr. Barnett's work in time to use the wisdom in his words.

[hof1991]

Moving most of the troops over the horizon to Kuwait and Kurdistan (which might as well be a separate country)? Great idea and one that Bush &Co rejected outright months ago when Murtha proposed it. They are in a hole and all they can do is shovel harder. The hole will just keep getting deeper until they are out of office.