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« Tom's column this week | Main | Blowback on another military-only strategy »
5:16PM

If he's gonna' talk like that, don't let him out in public

ARTICLE: Defending Iraq War, Defiant Cheney Cites 'Enormous Successes', By Peter Baker, Washington Post, January 25, 2007; Page A01

ARTICLE: Bush Plans New Focus On Afghan Recovery: Extra $7 Billion Would Go to Security, Roads, By Michael Abramowitz, Washington Post, January 25, 2007; Page A01

Cheney's disconnect comes off as scary weird. He shouldn't be allowed in public if he's going to go all brittle like that. He'll end up being a bigger danger to Petraeus than Maliki if he keeps it up.

Meanwhile, the $7B announcement on Afghanistan is encouraging.

In retrospect, history will wonder aloud why America didn't put in the huge effort on Afghanistan and temporize on Iraq (something I addressed in a column a way back). Now, we're backfilling on both Afghanistan and Iraq and contemplating war on Iran (my weekend column that Scripps will post and distro tomorrow).

In defense of Bush (very cynically): no matter how bad Iraq goes, his Big Bang is actually extended further and better by worse outcome than by opposite (Iraq as dream case), because Iraq-dream-case dismissed regionally as American pilot study and not indicative. Plus, in that case we'd probably just be pursuing the same ramp-up on Iran, with the same "brave" effort from Saudis ("you spill blood, we'll make more profit by pumping harder and doing our bit to reduce Iran's revenue"). If that was path, we'd likely have just blundered into unsustainable invasion of Iran (can't handle 20m in Iraq when things go bad, so 70m in Iran... hard to be optimistic).

Of course, with this path (Iraq sucks), we're mostly blowing smoke on Iran. But we're more likely to get--however scary--further and faster on conflating conflicts (unless pushed too much to fight Israel's desired war with Iran, because then the global blowback on us overwhelms any localized dynamics we may wish for)
in that the Saudis are forced to fish or cut bait on the Sunni Triangle.

But here's why I think the Iran-war-sales-job is so real: not just Tel Aviv but also Riyadh pushing the package (both the blood and the treasure).

Think Bush won't do it? Rewatch the Cheney interview with Wolf and remember that he's the adult in the room when that gut decision gets made.

Scary enough when the president has no cares about legacy. Now we contemplate matching that dynamic to Cheney's own disdain.

And under the right conditions?

We will see impeachment proceedings.

Don't believe? Then you need to check out Biden's long soliloquy yesterday on the Senate's options, cause those gears are turning.

Reader Comments (13)

I'd LOVE to check out Biden's soliloqy-- got a link?Assume the impeachment would be of Cheney, right?
January 28, 2007 | Unregistered CommenterMichal Shapiro
As a troop on the ground in Afghanistan, who is in regular contact with troops onthe ground in Iraq, I've got to say that the Vice President's statements bear far greater relationship to reality than you give credit for. Not so bad, considering that the majority of Americans don't grant that credit either.

I'm disturbed, though, by the large number of Republicans who are starting to patronize the Copperhead Cafe. Even the President's public (and I hope it's only public) eating of humble pie is more than a little upsetting as we've become accustomed to actual leadership (what comes of not being concerned for legacy) rather than poll watching.

I'm glad Peyton Manning didn't give up at halftime and can't quite grasp why we seem so willing to do so, bing only 4 years into an 8 year minimum conflict, a 12 year minimum training commitment, and a 20 year minimum poitical process.

Can't for the life of me figure out why, if it's so d**nably important to duck out of Iraq, why it's not equally important to do likewise here, or Bosnia/Kosovo, or S. Korea.

As for impeachment, between two Democrat precedents, Jacksonian one man with courage being a majority and the Clintonian proof that impeachment means nothing, I give it a big "who cares," in the event.
January 28, 2007 | Unregistered CommenterRTO Trainer
RTO Trainer:

thank you for your service.

with all due respect, while i may agree with your assessment of how long success would/will take, NO ONE, signed up for 4 years, not to mention 20. we NEVER could have gotten buy-in on four years and we certainly didn't plan for four years.

or am i wrong?
January 28, 2007 | Unregistered CommenterSean Meade
The only people I know who are surprised by the length of time on this are those who don't study history.

It can't be done faster. There are no shortcuts. Or at any rate, it's never been done faster and shortcuts that work have not yet been found.

No one signed up for the 15 we've put into Bosnia/Kosovo either, and yet....

Who bought in, in advance, to 57 years and counting in Korea? And they say that they will be ready to take over their own defense entirely by 2012. 62 years. Bravo.

80 years in the Philippines? Who predicted that?

Or perhaps we'd rather Iraq be our new Haiti, where we just pop in for a reigeme change or a "stop shooting each other" session every 3 to 5 years because we never finished the initial investment.

Or even better, after 30 years of slaughter, destitution and despotism, then they can be like Vietnam (maybe) and start taking tentative steps toward connectivity.
January 28, 2007 | Unregistered CommenterRTO Trainer
Never believe Bush doesn't have legacy on his mind. His library has been priced at $500 million.

All I'm saying is that when I go try to check out his Guard records, my explanation of why they're not available better include 5 free lap dances.
January 28, 2007 | Unregistered CommenterJoseph
Better take some hard looks at the methodologyu of that poll. In addition it's comming up on a year old.
January 28, 2007 | Unregistered CommenterRTO Trainer
As for me, it's not a matter of how long it takes to "win" in Iraq. It's about the horrible, unnecessary mistakes that were made, that have extended the conflict, killed hundreds of thousands of Iraquis and thousands of our soldiers, weakened our strategic global positioning, strengthened our enemies and degraded any moral high ground we ever had. Those mistakes came from higher ups who have not sufficiently (if at all) admitted their culpability. Incompetence, arrogance and cronyism have been the catchwords of this leadership, and what the American public needs to feel is renewed faith in its government. I currently have more faith in General Petraeus's judgement and motives than I have in either the president or Vice's.
January 29, 2007 | Unregistered CommenterMichal Shapiro
RTO:

Good luck over there. I was a troop on the ground with the 101st in both Afghanistan and Iraq.

I understand your point bout the shortsightedness of people regarding these wars. I think people would be ok with a longer duration (like Kosovo and Bosnia) if it looked like the people in charge knew what they were doing. I firmly believe Bremmer messed up any chance we had when he was put in charge of CPA, but that’s a bigger issue.

As far as Iran is concerned, right now the Iranian people love us. Watch Ted Koppel’s documentary when he went over there. The kids there have all but given up the mullahs message. The only thing that could change their thinking now would be if we’re stupid enough to bomb them. Look at it this way: If you’re a Soldier then you’ve spent plenty of time complaining about your unit, bosses, etc to other guys IN YOUR UNIT. But what happens when a guy from another BN, BDE, or even Division starts trashing your group? You circle the wagons. Only YOU can bad-mouth YOUR unit. It’s the same with the Iranians. They’ll be with us as long as we don’t screw it up. Just give it time.

And before you worry about Ahmedinijad selling nukes to Al-Quida or Hezbollah, remember Pakistan has a FAR more likely chance of letting that happen, and we’re not talking about bombing them.

Again, good luck and stay safe.

January 29, 2007 | Unregistered CommenterJFRiley
Sean, please don't include me in the NO ONE signed up for four years category. I thought it was going to take two generations and I'm not even a great thinker. I can't belive anyone would have thought it would take less than forty years. This whole fear of a long commitmit is why we pulled out of Iraq the first time. If we pull out now we will just be back and the price will be higher, again.

Thank you RTO Trainer for your service and your thoughts. Via con Dios.
January 29, 2007 | Unregistered CommenterHugh
RTO T,What about the military times poll that shows for the first time a majortiy of the soldiers admit they don't believe in the way the war in Iraq is being fought?The thing that bothers me most is the hundereds of retired high level officers that have coming out against the invasion of Iraq from the outset. These people seem to be doing this out of real concern for the nation. They would have to be very concerned to put the future careers in the M.I.C. in jeopardy by being seen a a "rebel".

As for your list of other long commitments, the US has drawn down to 100 soldiers there.
January 29, 2007 | Unregistered Commentercentrist
"NO ONE, signed up for 4 years, not to mention 20. "

"No One" GI-wise or "no one" politically?

In the case of the latter, no one should be surprised at multi-tours and extensions. It's the freakin' Army for crying out loud. Nothing goes right and everything takes longer than it should. That tours of duty are only months and not years long is a late 20th-century development.

In the case of the latter, GW said on 9/20/01: "Americans should not expect one battle, but a lengthy campaign unlike any other we have ever seen. "
January 29, 2007 | Unregistered CommenterMichael Tanji
Sean, you're most definitely wrong. I can't believe that anyone seriously thought it'd take less than 4 years. Certainly none of the key decision makers or military leaders thought so.
January 30, 2007 | Unregistered CommenterNathan Machula
I am not so sure it really is about time, like Sean says. It is really about money.

While there can be a debate about if we signed on for four years or not, I don't believe any corporate entity signed on for 1 trillion or so.

I think corporate and the military/industrial complex figured Iraq as a huge cash cow, much in the way TPMB says use it or lose it.

If there is any movement to end this war it will come from the Corporations that are starting to believe OBL promise of killing the US by making it spend itself to death.
January 31, 2007 | Unregistered CommenterLarry Dunbar

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