Recollections from the China trip
Wednesday, July 5, 2006 at 3:21PM DATELINE: Above the garage in Indy, 5 July 2006
Cut short the family holiday trip over the 4th to get back for quick one-day journey to DC (actually No. VA) to meet with exec of company that’s expressed the usual interest in Enterra.
On cab ride home (Pilot still being fixed) I tried to write down some of my major impressions of how the vision/briefs were received in China at the various venues (U. of Beijing, military research tank/audience, and prestigious China Institute for Contemporary International Relations, or CICIR).
First, I was surprised to see how many had already read the book in English, even more so how many brought volumes for signature. The bottom line being, the Chinese pol-mil elite study our writings a lot.
Second, most of their interest centered on the future of U.S.-China relations, so my argument for strategic alliance were of the utmost interest, the general feeling being that it was possible to consider on China’s side but that the Americans would be too suspicious for it to happen--or simply too fearful of China’s “rise” to see the logic of it.
Third, what seemed to strike the biggest chord with people was my notion that while the U.S. needed alliance with China, China needed it even more with the U.S. Torpedo the global economy and America’s still relatively rich and strong, but China might well come apart. Yes, free-loading on the global security was fine for now (and just about all Chinese I interact with loathe the notion of stepping up the country’s global security profile), but a budding backlash is brewing in the Gap against perceived Chinese economic exploitation that says China’s formula for trade with these states is really no better than the old European colonial model (raw materials at cheap prices for China and a flood of cheap finished goods for the local elites and minute middle class--so some enclaved development but no real integration). So while America catches a lot of flack today as the face of globalization, China’s continued emergence will soon push it into that same limelight. So it’s ally now or ally later, with higher costs likely on both sides the longer we collectively wait.
Fourth, China’s foreign policy elite know that the country’s growing reliance on foreign energy is unsustainable, not merely in terms of potential disruption but--quite frankly--in sheer volume required. The system simply will not adjust enough to accommodate China’s growing appetite, so it’s new rules forged by China’s development pathway or inevitable stagnation at some point in the mid-term, with political instability at home as the by-product.
Fifth, the car culture in China is taking off far more today than it was even two years ago. It’s all so 1950s-like (echoing last Sunday’s op-ed), with the leaded gas and the seat belts no one wears and the slower speeds and the plethora of mismatched vehicles on the roads. And it will only get worse in terms of congestion and pollution. People there simply love the freedom of movement too much. Cat’s outta the bag on that one.
Finally, I believe I now have some new friends on the book publishing front, which makes me a whole lot more optimistic on getting both PNM and BFA out. I’ll let my agents follow up on that, but hopefully something will break by the end of the year, perhaps even a joint publication of both books.
Overall, a great trip that will lead to many more, I am sure, and not just to China but to places around Asia.
Reader Comments (4)
I discovered a key to your success and productivity is your ability to read and write in moving conveyances. Totally beyond me. Do you ever get carsick?
This talk that they think they need a US alliance more than we do brings up a thought. I've heard a bunch of times you talk about the "china price" in the sense of the price we need to pay to ally with the PRC. What is their perception of the "US price" and is it accurate? Why aren't they paying it and sealing the deal?
I think that the US price includes multiparty democracy and they haven't figured out how to do that and not have the wheels come off. I believe there *is* a formula to do it and change the entire US/PRC relationship. I'm just fundamentally unsure if the available solutions include a "chinese" solution culturally acceptable to the PRC. A legalization of the KMT on the mainland in exchange for peaceful unification with the PRC would be a workable swap but:
1. The KMT would have to ride back to power
2. Such a power swap would have to be acceptable to the nationalistic PRC masses
I think that #1 is eminently doable but #2 is the potential weak point.
If the masses can swallow it, the power clans that rule and communist party will split, feeding cadre into the KMT and making it a viable political force while keeping family/clan interests relatively intact. The foreign prize would be a vastly improved understanding of and access to US power elites. The domestic prize would allow the KMT to clean out corruption through democratic vote instead of violence. A rotation of power will be healthy for united China.
I think you're putting the cart way ahead of the horse, TM. Real freedom is most economic, not political. Far bigger near term issue is the convertibility of the currency and land ownership reform in the countryside.
The US price is ever changing, with lock-in being crucial as early as possible. Lock-ins are found in economics, not politics.
Tom, which currency and which legal system will predominate is up for grabs. Due to demographics, the CCP population will dominate but whose label they dominate under is less relevant. What does the ROC have that is worth "buying" except for its superior rulesets and relationships? Once it is in the fold, its usefulness as a nationalist touchstone fades. The best way for the assets it has to be maximally useful is for them to predominate.
But as I said, I fear this sort of guppy swallowing the whale talk is too un-chinese to fly. It draws on the experience I see in corporate affairs of Chrysler and NeXT being bought by Daimler and Apple respectively and predominating afterwards. I simply don't know enough about the chinese to be sure how they would react to such a solution so I float it and hope for someone with greater knowledge to give it a better once-over.