11:06AM
Did you listen...
Saturday, March 18, 2006 at 11:06AM ...to Tom on Larry Kudlow? What did you think?
My number one thought: Tom just couldn't get Larry to say 'Enterra'. Kept coming out as 'Enserra'.
Anyway, Larry certainly seemed to be on the same page with Tom on most of the economic connectivity stuff. Fun to listen to.
Reader Comments (2)
I listened to Tom on Kudlow's show. He made some interesting arguments for globalization. I was always in that camp regarding China, but I think Iran is another matter entirely. It will be very hard to crack the Mullah's hold on this young population, given the extreme religion of Islam and brainwashing since birth. I doubt that technology will be allowed to enter the mass mindset.
I sincerely hope I'm wrong, but we've got a terrible problem with these fanatics and I believe my grandchildren will still be fighting terrorism from the Mid-east.
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As for the interview, good responses on Tom's part. Kudlow jumped around a bit too much and had more enthusiasm than interview skill, but I like his principled and pro-market views.
On a tangent, the recent book "COBRA II" by Michael Gordon and Gen. Bernard Trainor (ret.) has been sobering for me as I've read it this week. Tom has said Rumsfeld is right when says we can win wars with small, fast-moving forces supported by air power and information technology. He feels the Iraq war was waged brilliantly.
But what of the Fedayeen and irregular forces who able to mount opposition, threaten logistics, and slow our advance toward Baghdad. What if an enemy organized a formal guerilla attack? If you put in too few forces for the "war" phase, couldn't you end up short-handed to deal with those enemy forces and secure the flanks and logistics?
In the COBRA II book, the enemy's effectiveness in the south seemed real. They put up fierce opposition to Marine combat battalions and the 3ID armored cavalry squadron, both of which are top combat formations. C2 and situational awareness was an issue for units, even with this 21st century force. Air power is useful, but apparently the Marines didn't know the location of all their units and called in an air strike on friendly forces.
Further, just the natural fatigue of combat is captured in the book. To ask the same cavalry squadron to move from objective to objective is too much. The squadron leader in the book misunderstood orders regarding where he should head to next, probably due to fatigue. Another officer forgot to relay an order to a subordinate, which had consequences. If you have sufficient forces, you can give that mission to a fresher unit and rest that other squadron for a few hours. If you don't, then you overstress the few forces you have. You could counter-argue that the army will be more efficiently use and allocate its forces in the future as NCW takes hold. But intelligent ultimately is imperfect and commanders will make judgments. You can't count on IT to remove the fog of war.
Further, the issues posed by terrain and weather aren't erased by technology. Tanks and vehicles get stuck. Helicopers crash in that climate. You need reserve forces to recover the downed equipment. I know that seems trivial but in reading the book, these things occured frequently. And when you have a small footprint, that company that is stuck in the mud is basically by itself, on its own. You're risking a lot in the name of speed. Air power? Well, friendly fire comes up again. The Marines didn't know a company had advanced into town. The Army had Jessica Lynch's company where it wasn't supposed to be. Units aren't where they are supposed to be. And SOF is everywhere. Further, an organized guerllia campaign will take advantage of civilian centers since the U.S. has ROEs restricting artillery and bombing strikes into those areas without high-level approval.
In short, COBRA II has led me to question the notion that technology and aggresive manuever means we can conduct war with a small force, especially since Hussein had a weak, poorly coordinated, poorly led defense force. Against a stronger foe, even more force would be needed.
Before I end the post, of course let me say that I am not a military person, just a citizen trying to stay informed on the issues.