5:42AM
Is the US/China relationship a rerun of UK/US?
Saturday, March 11, 2006 at 5:42AM Or, to take you back to your SAT days, Is US:China::UK:US? ;-)
Tom got the following email from a reader (who shall remain anonymous unless he outs himself):
Is China the Nemesis in a New Cold War?Thought you might be interested. This author compares US/China relationship to UK/US relationship of 1800's with some focus on financial issues, and non-military nature of competition.
Tom's reply:
Although a bit harsh on the U.S. and ignoring the huge differences between the globalization model pushed by colonial England compared to US, as well as the different security "exports" offered by each, this is still an interesting analysis that gets closer to what needs to be said about the China "threat" than most of the bullshit from people like that Wash Times whack job. Worth reading and pondering.
Reader Comments (4)
I don't think that is an apt analogy. China is more like the Imperial Germany of the late 19th century: A country that has finally arrived at the international stage and is now looking for "Ein Platz an der Sonne."
In this scenario it is India which plays the role of the US. Bush's recent visit to India highlightened the idea of India as a new defender of Anglo-saxon values.
Some numbers to illustrate why China is not Wilheimine Germany.
Amount of US Treasuries China bought in 2005: US$200 billion
Cost of a Nimitz-class carrier battlegroup: US$20 billion
Current PRC defense budget: US$20 billion - US$90 billion
With all of the talk of the great massive Chinese military buildup, one forgets that China is spending more money financing the United States military than the PLA.
The thing that has me interested is how many Pentagon brass are talking about being "perplexed" about China military intentions. China's military intentions are quite simple. Deter Taiwan from declaring independence. Period.
China's ambitions go further than detering Taiwan from independence. They've also started to move aggressively to secure natural resources in third world countries by allying themselves with rogue nations that lack access to western capital markets. Just like wilhelmine germany the chinese don't yet really know what their long-term aims ought to be and could very well stumble into conflict by accident.
Wilhelmine Germany was also heavily involved in the london financial market, one reason they believed that the UK would stay neutral in a continental war.
China isn't a threat to us yet, nor does it necessarily mean that they will become a threat to us in the future if their emergence is handled well by both sides, but I believe it is fanciful to think that China could pick up the slack from the US in the future just as the US did from the UK. We do not share a similar outlook on the world and on values that would lead us to be compatible to the degree we are with the UK. Inda is a much better candidate in the long run. It is already the largest english-speaking nation in the world and within a generation will have more english speakers than the rest of the anglosphere combined.
Joseph's point is absolutely brilliant!
I'm amazed I've never seen that notion before, because it just jumps at you once you're confronted with it.
Bravo!