12:45PM
Tom on the WP from the minivan
Friday, February 17, 2006 at 12:45PM ARTICLE: "In the Mideast, the Third Way Is a Myth," by Shibley Telhami, Friday, February 17, 2006; Page A19
Driving with family up north and got this article sent from a reader.
Great article. Gets at something I've always felt insinctively about the region and which drives my co-optation strategy with Iran. This realization is what needs to happen among U.S. decisionmakers if we're going to keep the Big Bang rolling (hmmmm, feel like I have my next column).
Here is the key point in the text:
This leaves U.S. foreign policy with limited choices. Full electoral democracy in the Middle East will inevitably lead to domination by Islamist groups, leaving the United States to either continue a confrontational approach, with high and dangerous costs for both sides, or to find a way to engage them -- something that has yet to be fully considered. Given this, skepticism about the real aims of these groups should be balanced by openness to the possibility that their aims once they are in power could differ from their aims as opposition groups. This requires partial engagement, patience, and a willingness to allow such new governments space and time to put their goals to the test of reality. Hamas, in fact, could provide a place for testing whether careful engagement leads to moderation.
[posted for Tom by Sean]
Reader Comments (5)
Seems the bottom line is
"If we are not willing to engage, there is only one alternative: to rethink the policy of accelerated electoral democracy and focus on a more incremental approach of institutional and economic reform of existing governments. There is no realistic third party that's likely to emerge anytime soon."
How willing does anyone reading this think the majority of US voters will signal a willingness to embrace the "Long War" and its endless tens-of-billions supplemental budget requests/demands? The challenge of getting the US public to accept a long committment is too often ignored. If the popular perception was that the war in Iraq=GWOT, things might be easier, but that perception is fading. I also doubt the political ability of any emerging national politicians to convince the public to deal with Hamas, the Muslim brotherhood etc., much less Iran and Syria anytime soon. What am I missing, or is this just too short-term a view?
you're right, john: this is a major challenge. it could be met more easily by: 1. moving SysAdmin funding and actions out of supplementals, making room for them by cutting back on next generation platforms for the Leviathan. 2. leadership. leadership casts vision - 'a future worth creating', in Tom's words. the Bush administration has been really bad about explaining the good work that's being done and giving it a context.
i don't think you're missing anything, you might just see the glass as only a 1/4 full (and you could be right!). to paraphrase the sub captain in Hunt for Red October, there's still about a million ways this stunt could go wrong. Tom's Big Bang won't keep banging if someone pulls all the troops home right away. at least the military's learning better how to 'win the peace', as Tom keeps reporting.
I don't think that arabs are any dumber than anybody else. Given a free electoral environment, Islamists are likely to take an early election, perhaps even two. The third is likely to be their downfall because of one simple fact, Islam is *not* the answer. Islam is fragile, brittle, and in deep crisis. It is unable to govern properly over the long haul as the imams of Tehran have demonstrated so amply.
In an electoral environment where the clergy is not vetting the candidates, Islamist parties will roll in and out of government and either learn to moderate or learn to live outside the halls of power because the people will not let them make a mess of their governments again.
To draw a long-term negative outcome from democracy, you either have to assume that it will not continue (one man, one vote, one time) or that Islam really *is* the answer. I respectfully submit that it's a crock and that the proof will be in the pudding.
Hamas won power because the palestinians deluded themselves into thinking that the West was giving them jizya, not a humanitarian helping hand to aid in transition to a secular modern future. They are starting to learn otherwise. My prediction is that Hamas will not make payroll and that event will be painful enough to teach the appropriate lesson. If Hamas moderates, gets the money, and makes payroll, things are going well too.
Those who are pulling back from democracy promotion seem to be fundamentally misunderstanding why democracy works. It's the world's best training tool for picking governments. If you pick well, you tend to do it again next time. If your first choice bombs, you'll pick another and another and another until you're satisfied with the government.
TML-
I think Hamas, being the only viable alternative/organized political force right now, will be able to sell to their willing public that the west undermined them and make political martyrs of themselves. If Hamas politicians were to suggest internally that Hamas recognize Israel and honor past agreements,they'd be killed politically and perhaps literally. My problem with your analogy of democracy as "a training tool for picking governments" (a good phrase and true, if applied) is the implied assumption that there will be another election or two for the Palestinians. Among other things, democracies are fragile creatures in their early years. Ours was blessed geographically with oceans on both sides and huge tracts of land to take.....not to mention a long tradition of laws and courts Long committments to democracy in cultures with no such tradition is a rosy assumption.
I agree with TML above. As long as elections are allowed to continue in the future, Hamas now has to produce. They can claim they were undermined, but if the Palestinians are not better off in the next one or two elections then more moderate candidates will win the next elections.
If the lives of the Palestinians are truly as desperate as some claim they will not have a lot of patience for excuses from Hamas.