Exploring what comes next is cooler than what's maturing now

Arherring from Dreaming 5GW wrote in to Tom to connect some of what their doing with Tom's thought (specifically jumping off of the SysAd-volution post). Arherring writes:

This sort of approach to counter-insurgency (and its inclusion into the Sysadmin) is exactly the sort of concept that we at Dreaming 5GW have been exploring. As the emerging Sysadmin evolves Fifth Generation capability to combat Fourth Generation opponents it will have to continue to include an
increasing number approaches that are economic, social and political, as well as military. In discussions at Dreaming 5GW, attempting to define 5GW, we have explored the concept that in 5GW effects come from several directions at once and at a systemic level. In other words, the effects may be several times removed from the 5GW action, but the multiple domains 5GW works through causes those effects to have significant reach. The trick is to make those effects cause a targeted group to act in a certain way that works toward a larger 5GW goal.

In this particular case of Marines in Al-Anbar the 5GW context is that it isn't about bringing in businesses, but creating and environment where businesses can succeed (security, investment and infrastructure).

Tom responds:

My own sense is that 5GW will be all about fait accomplis and the illusion of choice, and that the real nature of debates will be purposefully disguised until relevant players (always tricky to define, because many will self-select, but few will be "chosen") have steered outcomes toward desired ends. In that sense, it's a form of corporatism (a specific poli sci term) on a global scale until such time as institutions arise for greater global pluralism (connectivity typically predates code, which is driven by scandals revealed in their "due course").

It is the ultimate in horizontal global positioning ("conflict" suggesting too much kinetics) designed to stave off system-disrupting vertical perturbations/attacks.

This is where I think John has it backwards: it's 4GW, not globalization, that spawns its own self-limitations/destruction (parasites never seek system destruction, hence their limits of influence). 5GWers will, for many useful reasons, declare the terrorists to be "in charge of the world," but that will only serve as the primary obfuscation in global security affairs. Others are already well in use in other sectors (like "peak oil" in energy).

In short, tracking 4GW will get you the smoke, but understanding 5GW will get you the fire.

Every generation of war, like every generation of energy/politics/economics/etc., is declared the "ultimate" by its adherents, but they're more additive than transcendent. The best and most advanced simply move onward and upward, with the next generation representing the latest and greatest method of moving the total pile with the least energy and most gain for the manipulators in question.

That's why your site (Dreaming 5GW) is so cool: you're exploring what comes next, not what's maturing right now.

And for driving some of my thinking, I thank you all.