Does Iran have some capacity to influence violence in Iraq?

ARTICLE: "Hezbollah Helps Iraq Shiite Army, U.S. Official Says: Iran Seen as Facilitator," by Michael R. Gordon and Dexter Filkins, New York Times, 28 November 2006, p. A1.

Here's the key quote:

Iran is the one country standing between Bush and peace in the Middle East. Bush can't solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict without its say-so, because the mullahs are the biggest potential spoilers in the region. They fund the terrorist groups that can effectively veto peace efforts in both Jerusalem and Baghdad. Iran is the one regional power that can still menace the Gulf militarily. Everyone else there operates in Tehran's shadows

Nah, just kidding. That's from my Feb "Mr. President" piece in Esquire in 2005.

Comments

[Mark in Texas]

Dr.Barnett

Given that you have been pointing out the similarities between present day Iran and the late Brezhnev era Soviet Union, how long do you think that it might be before Iran implodes? If or when that happens, are the different ethnic groups who make up almost half the country likely to break into independent countries? How could we or how should we prepare for such an eventuality?

[Tom Barnett]

I said in PNM that i expect dramatic change within Iran by 2010.

I am still optimistic on that score, but now for reasons you might not expect. I think it will be Ahmadinejad and his types that overthrow the rule of the mullahs as we have known them, replacing them with something even less tenable and more brittle.

The downside to this hope is, of course, Bush's current course, which facilitates this development while leaving it too strong.

Me? I would build Ahmadinejad up in the short term to facilitate the self-destruction of the regime within a reasonable time frame.

And that would mean something not like our Castro policy of the past four decades.

[subadei]

"Me? I would build Ahmadinejad up in the short term to facilitate the self-destruction of the regime within a reasonable time frame."

Would this include exploiting the philosophical divisions between Ahmadinejad and Khamenei?

[Martin Vasquez]

Two comments.

First, how do you account for apocolyptic views that Iran's leaders have? Rafsanjani said Iran could suffer 15 million dead in a nuclear war with Israel, and it would be a small price to pay for the destruction of Israel. Do you really think this is just rhetoric?

Second, I can't see the Israelis ever allowing a nuclear armed Iran in it's current form. With Bush weakend by the election, the conditions in Iraq, and unreliable intelligence from inside Iran, the Israelis have got to be thinking they will have to deal with Iran on their own, and soon. I see the possibility of an Israeli strike on Iran increasing rapidly.