All Leviathan and no SysAdmin leaves George a dumb boy

ARTICLE: 'Dramatic change of direction' coming for Iraq, By Sharon Behn, THE WASHINGTON TIMES, October 19, 2006

First option described as inevitable on many levels, as I continue to argue.

Second option seems premature, given bloodshed required. Still, one of my "headlines from the future" on Iraq had a Musharref-like strongman stepping dowwn (or something to that effect), so clearly I'm not too surprised by that temptation.

How to reconcile the two?

As I argued back in Mar 05 in Esquire (the second "Mr. President" piece), killing the Sunni dream of any unitary state is the same narrowing choice we forced on Milosevic's Serbia in that fake state Yugoslavia that was unable to survive beyond dictator Tito's grip (although his clever use of cross-domination among the republics' elites kept the peace a good decade beyond his death). Pushing/allowing semi-autonomy for the previously beat-upon Shiia and Kurds does that, but it doesn't tame the sectarian violence, nor does it end the Sunni-based insurgency. For that, a tough guy on top who's empowered on security, but less so on politics and economics, is likely key, because an ungovernable space in Sunni-land is probably too unacceptable to the region's dictators.

Neither path is particularly sunny, pointing out the profound cost we incur for both lacking the SysAdmin force and our horrible mismanagement of postwar Iraq.

All Leviathan and no SysAdmin leaves George a dumb boy.

Thanks to James Riley for sending this in.

Comments

[chew2]

Scenarios for the Insurgency in Iraq
http://www.usip.org/pubs/specialreports/sr174.html

"Descent into Hell
The insurgency leads to a regional war."

""Lebanonization"
Baghdad becomes Beirut, and Iraq becomes Lebanon. Iran plays the role of Syria after a bitter civil war in Iraq has reduced the parties to exhaustion, and the United States reduces its forces."

Explores the ramifications of a breakup of Iraq and how we can get out.

[Chris Isgrig]

All I want to know is how do I get in touch with Greg Jaffe of the Wall Street Journal. I was a member of LTC Demas' team that is mentioned in Jaffe's October 18, 2006 article "Problems Afflict U.S. Army Program To Advise Iraqis." I could certainly tell a different story. I think I might want to talk to a lawyer and a public affairs officer before I said anything. Needless to say the experience tends to confirm all of the problems created by the gulf between planning and reality. The gulf can lead to a level of disaffection, "sour grapes if you will" because of the diffences between expectations and actualizations. Perhaps it is for the best that Mr Jaffe did not talk to me because I would have to wonder what constructive virtue comes from the sort of articles Mr. Jaffe writes.

[frankwolftown]

So what now?
How do we make this happen? I read the The Futurist and got all excited but I read what's happening here and it comes back to the same question. How do get this happen an get this administration to wake up?