Great signs abound on North Korea
Tuesday, October 17, 2006 at 4:56AM Our diplomats heading to China speaking openly of the need for an East Asian NATO (WSJ today) and Chinese officials and policymakers are openly debating the utility of their own potentially leading role in toppling Kim from within.ARTICLE: China may back coup against Kim, by Michael Sheridan, The Australian, October 16, 2006
Kim's rashness may be the best gift this administration receives in its time left. If China steps up, then the question becomes how fast and how well we reward them. Because what we do not give, when deserved, will be ultimately taken without further compensation. We want a start to a beautiful relationship here.
Once achieved, then we speak more openly of how our joint dialogue with Iran begins to tame that regime as well.
Then the real work begins...
Mr. President, you're getting some real opportunity here to end your time on something other than failure in Iraq, thanks to Chris Hill's determined effort, Bob Zoellick laying the groundwork, and China starting to punch at its weight. Don't look this gift horse in the mouth.
Ride it into your sunset.
Thanks to TM Lutas and Lexington Green for sending this to me and Brandon Winters for sending it to Sean.
Reader Comments (8)
Two failures(for lack of a better descriptor)on their border no less. The role of "loss of face" in all of this? It's degree of importance still maintained in North Asia? Excuse the vernacular but the Nork was not at the end of his leash, he's off the effen chain.
One incentive of course would be sorting out the whole Taiwan thing, but I don't see that happening.
Tom, what are your thoughts about semi-strong arming China by implying that we will have to arm SKorea and Japan with Nukes if the threat from the North doesn’t go away? The idea that this is all Americas problem to me seems misguided. We’re not the ones with major cities in striking distance of NKorea bombs. It seems that China should want to solve this problem before they have regional competition in the nuke race.
If and when Kim's regime falls, I can't help but wonder how much economic chaos will result. His million man army would hopefully be significantly reduced. Unemployment would skyrocket even further than it already is but money would finally begin moving into the gaunt and lifeless economy other than through the military infrastructure. Would this be an opportunity for China to take the lead in a SysAdmin type of operation? If they are concerned about creating a situation where millions of refugees flood across the border, will they baulk at having to rebuild infrastructure and commit to a lengthy rebuilding process? Would they let South Korea be involved? Would South Korea step up? I'm curious to know what people might forsee happening in such a situation.
PenGun - Why do you think that the PRC is accelerating its border fence building? The meat of solving the problem of North Korea is in the PRC's interest and as they realize it, PRC moves against the DPRK will accelerate. So unless lil Kim is going to radically change past behaviour, his regime is doomed in the medium term because he's crossed the line with the only people who matter, the PRC mandarins who keep the life blood of goods flowing.
The bonus of creating a better relationship between the US and the PRC is the long-term brass ring that Tom's been after both with N. Korea and his advocacy of a redefinition of our relationship with Taiwan. He's right that the relationship needs to be pursued and consumated. The details of how we do that hold a lot of traps and controversy.
China will have to get NK wrapped up for its own damn good.
The recent Kaplan article about all Hell breaking loose if (probably when) the Kim Dynasty falls apart gives some flavor of the mess that is brewing. China has invested a lot in keeping the neighborhood stable and getting wealthy by trading. To have a war or a nasty crisis in NK, with millions of refugees swamping its border, would be a huge headache for China.
The best thing in the article from The Australian was about how the Chinese have studied Romania and the fall of Ceausescu, to try to figure out if they could work a similar regime change in NK.
China has the means -- main food supplier, etc. -- and the interst, as noted, to crowbar Kim and his cronies out of office and set up something less horrible in his place. I think Kim's nukes are aimed at all kinds of places you don't ordinarily think about.
We should encourage China to clean out the mess of their own making in NK.
WOW. Best news I've heard in a while. I have been hearing rumblings about China running with the ball on this but didn't want to get the hopes up, too easy to get dashed. I guess for a Texas scrub brush rancher its better to be lucky than good. Don't worry, he won't screw it up, its just a Karl Rove trick anyhow, right?
PenGun - NK, not NC and of course the fence is to keep the refugees out, right along with the spies and saboteurs. Have you ever looked up how many people are planting bombs in the PRC already? A little plausibly deniable activity by the DPRK could go a long way in taking the PRC's eye off of pressuring lil Kim.
As for the problems that N. Korea is creating for the PRC, what do you think is happening to the PRC's shipping insurance rates. Maybe, just maybe, they're edging up a bit, making the magnates unhappy with Beijing, the PRC marginally less attractive to locate factories in, and putting another nail in lil Kim's coffin.
There's good money in fake Viagra and N. Korea is supplying truckloads of it. Do you think this might not tick off the legitimate PRC pharma industry?
The PRC is left holding the bag most of the time when lil Kim's counterfeits are detected. With PRC banking in such dire straits already, isn't that something that will put more pressure on the relationship?
The PRC needs a xenophobic hate object to keep itself stable. Abe is doing his best to get Japan to not be it. Who is a better candidate than lil Kim?
How much a problem the DPRK is for the US has nothing to do with it. Our role could be to throw in with the PRC on this issue so that the cost is shared and we start building some ties for the future. But that's it. Even absent that, the PRC will move and it'll be independent of how painful the DPRK is to the US.
Pengun,
You're right; China doesn't need a hate object, NO society needs a hate object. But what about the ruling party of China? Without the ideologies of old to justify their power, what do they have? A good economy, yes, but is that enough to keep them in power?