Lights, camera, action!
Thursday, October 12, 2006 at 3:58AM DATELINE: kitchen island, Indy, 12 October 2006
Felt somewhat awkward being on TV after not appearing for a while, and I think it showed in the first segment. You have all these things ready to say, but then it's your turn to speak and you hear your voice ring hollow in this cavernous room, where you're staring at a camera and can only hear the show through your earbud (seeing nothing), and it just doesn't sound right. It's like you're not really there.
So you stumble around a bit, but then the sense of urgency kicks in and you begin to get that feeling of being on stage, and the words comes faster.
Larry Kudlow kind of freaked me a bit when, as the music swelled to signal the commercial break, he just kept talking right over it, like somebody giving their Oscar speech and refusing to cut it off. Larry just had this one last question he wanted to ask and by God, he was going to ask it. But all I heard on my side was the music plus his increasing speed and I figured he was walking us out the door, so to speak. So when he called my name, it wasn't exactly clear to me if I was supposed to talk. But I figured, better to err on the side of talking (always assume you're on camera) and so I started. But the connection was such that, once I started talking, any sound from their end went dead (like some cell phone connections), so while I was talking (and stumbling a bit on the answer), I kept expecting a producer to come on in my ear and tell me to shut it because it was a commercial break. But then Larry piped in and I realized I was still on the air. Whew!
After a long commercial break, I'm feeling pretty relaxed because the local remote station guys said that NY was saying CNBC would probably go to a NYC press conference on the plane incident, so I figured I was done. I wasn't happy with that, because I felt I was only so-so in the segment and wanted to redeem myself a bit by doing better in the planned second (after the commercials), but then we were back on just like that, talking Iran.
By then, I was feeling okay and my answers sounded a lot better. I got to end on my oft-stated distinction that you kill authoritarian regimes (Iran) with connectivity, while targeting the totalitarian ones for regime change (North Korea). Larry reads the blog, so I figured, based on his rather complex question, that that was what he was looking for.
When the second segment ended, I felt much better. Only natural to be a bit stiff when I haven't been on for a while (no radio either), so it was nice to feel my feet get wet again. Still, a crazy business and I am loathe to start letting my day revolve around it like so many people seem eager to do.
But with Larry, cause he reads the blog (he called me "my blog master on everything"), it does seem different. I don't like to go on just to comment on daily events, because, as I said yesterday, I'm not political and short-term in perspective, but strategic and long-term, and I figure that stuff just doesn't go over as well on the medium (better on radio). But because Larry reads the blog, I know he's only having me on when he feels it's time for somebody to say the kind of things I'm writing in the blog, so the process of selection here seems good. And, as more and more producers of these things read blogs, maybe that's the natural conduit vice having PR people push you in their faces. Interesting thought.
Cool to be on with Ignatius. My wife says he's got that slightly bemused look of his down like a charm for his time on camera when he's not speaking. She suggests I get one of my own and stop leaning to my left (I have a medical excuse: my eyes are out of alignment, hence I need fairly strong prisms in both my lenses, and my counter when not wearing glasses is to tilt my head a bit to the left to balance my sight and prevent the double-vision I can get when I'm tired; all of which means that not only am I an optimist, but a cock-eyed one at that!).
Beinart was pretty good, and pretty young, and pretty casually dressed (but also nicely complimentary to me on China). I felt so adult-like in comparison, that it depressed me a bit, especially when I leaned forward and got the top-down view of my hairline. Oh, to move through your forties...
I realize it was a China-friendly group, so my argument on alliance with China went over very easily (as in, unchallenged). Typically, Larry seems to pair me with some fire-breathing type on China or Iran who automatically brand my ideas as "dumbest thing I've ever heard" or some such wry response, so I realize it was a friendly room. But what's cool about being so out there on China is that, when it happens (or when I finally engineer it on my own), everyone will remember that I was one of the people advocating this shift for so long. And to me, that's the job of the grand strategist. Leave it to the political tacticians to declare something the "dumbest thing they've ever heard," because when the worm turns, they'll sing the new tune on key instantly, being so political.
Anyway, good warm-up for today. Got a film crew coming on behalf of a corporate client (Royal Dutch Shell). They want to film me answering a number of generic and specific questions about the future for distro within their senior management. This is being done in advance of my next trip to China, where I'll do my usual brief with a host of managers brought together from around the world, plus do a special career-advice bit with a bevy of up-and-coming Chinese managers, which should be a story worth telling in Vol. III, methinks.
Anyway, I'm now inescapably having to clean the kitchen and first floor in anticipation of these guests, plus I've got to look over the questions, so blogging must wait...
But to amuse me while I clean, "The Way West: How the West Was Lost & Won (1945-1893)," an American Experience documentary directed by Ric Burns.
Reader Comments (7)
It is obviously a good idea to seek concordance with China in dealing with North Korea. Because our interests in the region are gradually going to decline anyways.
The economic viability of Globalism is going to collapse with the rising relative scarcity of oil. Sure we have the momentum to keep importing oil at 60 bucks a barrel. The Lesser Included's do not. The likelihood of them becoming Greater Included's will decrease.
South Korea will simply cease be important to us, if we have any rational ability to set priorities.
China is all Capitalized and R and D'd up: they don't really need U.S. engineering and scientific expertise. They have far more to offer oil exporting countries and mineral exporting countries for trade than we do. They will need oil more than they will need us to pay back all the money we owe them.
The United States will continue de-industrializing so long as the world continues "flattening": our practical ability to export mass quantities of goods for trade will decrease. The vastly overpopulated oil exporting countries will need great quantities of consumer goods to placate the masses, not occasional big ticket luxury imports.
China and India are a bottomless pit or endless tidal wave of human resources. There is no way more than 20 percent of either country will approach a standard of living promised by the globalists. But if the other 80 percent get jobs as prostitutes or city workers they will eventually start developing ideologies that question the legitimacy of the current system. Terrorism or Civil Wars will ensue.
Here is a little light reading. it has no political agenda, but may broaden your horizons. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farmers_of_Forty_Centuries
I think you came across very well on Kudlow’s show. I note the general agreement with what you had to say. This make speak volumes as I regard Mr. Kudlow as a sub rosa White House spokesman and Mr. Ignatius as a sub rosa CIA spokesman. Both men, deep down, have the country’s long-term interest at heart, so having their ear and their basic agreement is very good for all.
The most probable outcome will be a shift in policy toward the Barnett/Baker thesis. The timing, however, will be after the elections as it would not be politically smart to admit any error just before an election
I thought the lead-in with Secretary Gutierrez was actually perfect, what with his comments WRT free trade and China engagement. And you're right that there couldn't be a much more pleasant interlocutor than Kudlow: even in his interactions with the other guests (and in other segments) it's obvious that he's either strongly influenced by your strategic vision, very similar in his worldview, or both. This was the first time I'd seen Beinart live, and -- though I knew already that he's like 33 or something -- I was a bit floored by how damn young he seems (and I'm 26!). Less politics from him than I expected.
All in all, I thought it was a good appearance with a favorable crowd.
Any chance you'll be able to post the appearance somewhere for those of use who missed it?
Also, anyone with any sense (or interest in what you have to say) is going to rate you on your commentary, not your appearance….and last time I checked…the tilting of the head is generally categorized within the realm of body language as being engaged, or acutely focused.
Good advice though on the bemused look. Now we’ll all be looking for yours the next time you’re out there.
your input on kudlow is always a refreshing non-party line view. believe me, as i'm pretty much glued to cnbc all day at work, your input is top 1% of those interviewed.
Any way we can check this out on Youtube or the like?
Whenever you release your next book, it would be great to see you make the rounds on shows like the Daily Show and Real Time with Bill Maher. They've got audience who are often pegged these days as being knee-jerk anti-military and anti-war, but I think that they'd be quite interested to hear you spell out another way of thinking about such things in a positive light than the nonsense coming out of the White House.
Chris: Jennifer (Tom's publicist) has tried the Daily Show. any connections would be much appreciated.
and i agree with your audience comment. i view it as similar to the Pop!Tech audience, which Tom totally won over...