U.S. believes it can isolate Iran with New Core powers; it is wrong

■"Wider U.S. Net Seeks Allies Against Iran's Nuclear Plan," by Steven R. Weisman, New York Times, 10 September 2005, p. A1.

We're going to work Russia, India, China and Brazil on isolating Iran diplomatically by forcing a showdown in the UN. We've got old Core Europe to go along with our desire to work the Security Council angle, but the New Core is saying no.

"We need leadership on this," Ms. Rice said at a State Department news conference, citing Russia, China and India as vital potential partners in telling Iranian leaders to "live up to their international obligations" to suspend uranium conversion and enrichment.

Yes, we need leadership all right, but hectoring Russia, China and India on Iran is not leadership. That trio has already chosen on this question, and they know why: energy relationships and shared regional security concerns. We're not accessing either of those two issue areas with our fixation on Iranian nukes. We offer Iran really nothing it wants in return. Meanwhile, they subtly veto our efforts at locking in our Big Bang gains in the Persian Gulf. Russia, India and China see Iran's hand getting stronger and ours getting weaker without self-awareness as to this trend. Frankly, I wouldn't side with us on Iran right now. I'd wait out the Bush administration, which I would view as fundamentally consumed by its past bad choices/performances.

The discounting on this presidency has begun internationally. Bush can counteract it, but only by some truly imaginative approaches. None are in the offing, save for State's floating to China of something good on the far side of a North Korea endgame-like a new regional security alliance (they said I was crazy when I penned it in Esquire!).

No such imaginative ideas are floating on Iran right now. Instead, it's the long diplomatic slog in the UNSC. With our recent record on Iraq and WMD, expect this to go nowhere. To the extent this administration leads with that, they're telling the world they have no serious intention of doing anything regarding Iran on their watch.

The world will start noting these signals-and start discounting. We are a bit over a year from the midterm elections. After that, the discounting will skyrocket. We're talking months here to move some big piles overseas, and how much of that coming year will be lost to Katrina?

That's how important Katrina can be globally.