7th Inning: Barnett hits Hubbert's Curve

Instant replay:

July 27, 2004

Lotta people sending me info on the infamous Hubbert curve analysis that "proves" global oil production is irrevocably peaking and thus inevitably heading toward a crash. The analysis is essentially correct but fundamentally myopic, because it largely misses a fundamental fact about global oil markets: they are not run by multinational corporations but far more by national oil companies, or NOCs. NOCs control 60% of production but control close to 90% of reserves, as West points out in his excellent op-ed in the Post: > Read: The knock on NOCs

September 21, 2004

We will progressively run out of easily accessed oil. That will raise prices over time, pushing us to new technologies that allow us to extract oil from shale and sands. But as those new sources cost somewhat more, and as the world progressively works to decarbonizes its transportation energy usage (not to mention it's use of coal to generate electricity) due to environmental concerns (like clean air and global warming), technologies also arise in the automotive industry to push us toward hybrids and ultimately to hydrogen-fueled vehicles.

> Read: Doomsayers correct on end of oil like Marx was right on end of capitalism