Why Kristof is optimistic on China

■"Death by a Thousand Blogs: China's leaders have a new watchdog," op-ed by Nicholas D. Kristof, New York Times, 24 May 2005, p. A25.

Another brilliant piece by Kristof on China, who is America's best Sinologist. Here are the key parts:

The Chinese Communist Party survived a brutal civil war with the Nationalists, battles with American forces in Korea and massive pro-democracy demonstrations at Tiananmen Square. But now it may finally have met its match-the Internet.

The collision between the Internet and Chinese authorities is one of the grand wrestling matches of history, visible in part at www.yuluncn.com.

That's the Web site of a self-appointed journalist named Li Xinde. He made a modest fortune selling Chinese medicines around the country, and now he's started the Chinese Public Opinion Surveillance Net-one of four million blogs in China.

Mr. Li travels around China with an I.B.M. laptop and a digital camera, investigating cases of official wrongdoing. Then he writes about them on his Web site and skips town before the local authorities can arrest him.

Kristof lambastes Hu Jintao's recent turn toward old sloganeering, especially in support of North Korea, but I think he forgets that not only must "Nixon go to China," sometimes "Nixon needs to rule China." Hu needs to be hard as the party goes soft, because a soft Hu will lead to a political collapse no one wants.

Kristof himself sees the path I also predict: "I think the Internet is hastening China along the same path that South Korea, Chile and especially Taiwan pioneered. In each place, a booming economy nurtured a middle class, rising education, increased international contact and a growing squeamishness about torturing dissidents."

My point is the same: China will change because of the Chinese, not because of the West, although we can certainly screw it up all right with crazy dreams of wars some may consider worth waging.