Quoted in U.S. News & World Report feature on Shiites in Middle East

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 7 February 2005

Spoke with the reporter Jay Tolson in early January. Can't remember how or why he got ahold of me, but he did, and we talked, and it resulted in a quote in the piece.

This is how the article starts off:

31 January 2005

Nation & World:



The Shiite factor

Long vilified as extremists, these Muslims may hold the key to a new Middle East

By Jay Tolson

Blunt words are not the usual fare of Washington think-tank gatherings. But American Enterprise Institute fellow Reuel Marc Gerecht served up a few at a recent roundtable discussion. "If Iraq fails," warned the former CIA analyst, "we're toast."

COMMENTARY: No offense to Jay, but Gerecht's words were exactly the usual fare you get at Washington think-tank gatherings, especially if someone from the Agency (current or graduate) is involved. CIA people will always give the most depressing, fear-mongering take on whatever you can name. This is what passes for intelligence in DC: constant worst-casing. Somehow this is seen as "analysis," when it's really just paralysis (in fact, the military loves to call it "paralysis by analysis"). Tell me how opinions like this are useful when they're all that the community offers. The CIA should be all about news you can use, but instead it's mostly about why you should never try anything anywhere. I can't imagine how bad American foreign policy would be if we actually listened to the CIA on a regular basis. In reality, it's mostly ignored. When they offer something close to agreement with what you're proposing, THEN they're cited, otherwise, pretty much ignored.

Here's the last section of the piece where I'm quoted:

Tactics. Almost every supporter of a favorable outcome in Iraq agrees that America must be a careful midwife, exercising tact in diplomacy and greater shrewdness in its strategic thinking. Even being too cozy with Sistani might not be a good thing, particularly if he is perceived to be a U.S. lackey. And Iraq's chances of subduing the insurgency might be greatly helped, says Thomas Barnett, author of The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the Twenty-First Century and a former professor at the U.S. Naval War College, if Washington tries to make Iran a more responsible player in the region. Tact means avoiding inflammatory labels such as "axis of evil" (which only rallies support for the shaky theocracy), and shrewdness means coming up with bargaining chips to draw Tehran away from building the Bomb. As he argues in a current Esquire article, Barnett believes that a more responsible Iran is more likely to change. "They will be influenced by what is happening in Iraq," he says. "Sistani may be their Lech Walesa."

COMMENTARY: I guess if I had said something really depressing and scary, I could have been quoted at the top of the piece. Instead, I said something analytical and got stuck at the end. Sigh.

Go here for the complete article: www.usnews.com/usnews/issue/050131/usnews/31shiite.htm