A struggle in China that bears watching

"China's 2 Top Leaders Square Off in Contest to Run Policy: President and Head Of Military at Odds," by Joseph Kahn, New York Times, 2 September, p. A3.

This is the political struggle that really matters right now in the world: the one between the 3rd and 4th generation leaderships of China. This is not a choice between two really rich white guys from Yale, but a serious struggle over the future course of the world's most populous country. The 3rd generation, exemplified by Jiang Jemin (still with the top spot in the military), is not going softly into the night, despite handing over power officially a while back to the far more technocratic 4th generation, led by President Hu Jintao. Jiang wants a hard line on Taiwan and full steam ahead on economic growth, whereas Hu is far more nuanced on Taiwan because he's looking to become a regional political statesman and not just the "conqueror" of the renegade province, plus he's far more attuned to the plight of the rural poor in China, something that really bears watching if China isn't going to come apart socially with all this booming development (my theory that the train's engine can't travel any faster than the caboose).

Because Hu sounds vaguely more Marxist with his populism, you might think he's the retrograde, but it's really Jiang who needs to be pushed off the stage. This guy is just way too much into solidifying his historical legacy, and his impatience on both economic growth and Taiwan is dangerous for the country and the world as a whole, because it threatens global stability with the twin specters of a banking crisis in China and a showdown with the U.S. over Taiwan.

The U.S. should not be standing by idly on this one, but should be sending strong signals in favor of Hu, who faces Jiang's continued attempts to garner for himself more control over China's foreign policy (e.g., he's trying to promote himself as the head of a new, U.S.-style national security council). Yes, Jiang is nominally a bigger friend to the private sector and to the provinces vis-‡-vis Beijing, but the last thing we need is for China to spin out of control on any score, and that's more likely the more power Jiang accrues.