The middle is disappearing in Iraq

■"Iraq Sees Christian Exodus: As the Minority Religion Flees, a Cultural Shift Grabs Hold," by Yochii J. Dreazen, New York Times, 27 September 2004, p. A17.

The Christians, otherwise known as the moderate middle, are leaving Iraq in serious numbers. What was not too long ago a population of roughly one million is now down 15% and plummeting with the recent wave of bombings and other intimidations at their homes, places of business, and churches.

This is the biggest exodus since the Jews largely left in the 50s and 60s. As one Christian put it, "We have a proverb, 'After Saturday comes Sunday,'" meaning after the Jews are forced to leave a country you can expect the Christians will be driven out next.

The trifurcation of Iraq is looking more and more realistic, placing it squarely in my "Arab Yugoslavia" scenario pathway.