China reaching the environmental tipping point

■"China's Blurred Horizon: Spreading sands. Thickening smog. Toxic groundwater. Welcome to China, an economic success and an environmental disaster,"," by Joshua Kurlantzick, Washington Post, 19 September 2004, p. B1.

■"Bad Air and Water, and a Bully Pulpit in China,"," by Jim Yardley, New York Times, 25 September 2004, p. A4.

■"California Backs Plan For Big Cut In Car Emissions: 11 Years To Take Effect; Toughest Rules in Nation--Challenge Expected From Automakers,"," by Danny Hakim, New York Times, 25 September 2004, p. A1.

China's not on the verge of conquering the world economically, as some fear. But neither is on the verge of total collapse from overgrowth, as others fear. It is rapidly approaching a tipping point on environmental issues.

The time we spent in China was like stepping back and forward in history simultaneously: it was like visiting Victorian England when the industrial revolution was laying waste to the environment and the political rule sets simply couldn't keep pace, but it was also like looking at the future of much of the Gap as it plays catch up. Both images inform. To catch up is to get dirty, but to get dirty is to accelerate the move to clean.

We can't stop countries from wanting to catch up economically, and they will dirty their countries in the process. We can just help to get them there as quickly as possible and then be ready with the advice and tried-but-true rule sets that help them deal with the damage and get over that hump. The SOx and NOx cap-and-trade regime that we put in place in the early 1990s is a great example. That's a rule set that many in the U.S. seek to export to China and other emerging markets. We know it works, and we know that when you really need it, you need it bad.

China is reaching that really bad moment, and it will force a host of new rules. Already, the voices are appearing inside China. The Ralph Naders and Greenpeaces of that society are beginning to find their voices.

It used to be that watching California was like watching the future of the world, because what started there typically spread elsewhere. Increasingly, and espeically on environmental issues, China will become the California for the New Core and most of the Gap. Its experiences in the years ahead will inform the world on what it means to get rich and then get clean.

Can it be done? Did the U.S. do it?

When I was in China it was very nostalgic to smell cars burning that much lead. It was like stepping into my childhood.

But everyone needs to grow up someday. China will, have no doubt. They won't do it because it's good or peace-loving or because we tell them to. They'll do it because that have no choice.