System Perturbation: small trigger, huge outflow of rippling effects

Dateline: Washington Dulles Airport, 2 August 2004

Caught between United Express puddle-jumping flights on my way down to Joint Forces Command, where Iíll spend a day with the J-9 crowd (the experimentation guys who are looking hard at the Sys Admin force and how it must differ from the Leviathan force) and then keynote their 2-day conference on Wednesday that deals with what theyíre dubbing the Post-Conflict Stabilization Force. I guess you might call it Sys Admin with a time limit, but hey! Itís progress!

Todayís main blogís subject is actually a paper I simply want to enter into the record (in however many sections my webmaster has to cut it to make if fit the limits of Moveable Type). The paper was a first-cut attempt to describe System Perturbations as a new form of global conflict. My colleague and all-around brilliant friend Bradd Hayes did the first draft on this article, basically writing it from that section of my brief. He used it as a ticket to bloody old Englandóan Oxford conference, actuallyólate in 2002. The article has subsequently been posted in an e-Book that emerged from the conference entitled, War and Virtual War: The Challenges to Communities, edited by Raymond Westphal, Jr. (Oxford: Interdisciplinary Press, 2003). Not all papers from the conference were published, so the collection is only 11 papers long.

Why post this in todayís blog? It seems very fitting to do so on the day after the Department of Homeland Security sent out new terror alerts based on intelligence suggesting that al Qaeda seeks to replicate the success of 9/11 by possibly attacking a handful of financial landmarks on the East Coast. After all, these are only buildings, and destroying them would involve only the most miniscule damage to the economic health of the country. And yet, the symbolism would be far larger, as we saw with the Osama bin Laden tax that emerged after 9/11ócosting the U.S. economy untold billions. In short, itís not the attacks themselves that are important, but what they would mean to the U.S. economy in terms of the rule-set further damaged and/or altered to our competitive disadvantage as we seek to extend globalization around the planet and ultimately deny al Qaeda its strategic goal of disconnecting the Middle East from the world. Thatís what I mean by a System Perturbation: small trigger, huge outflow of rippling effects.

What I like about this short article is that itís so fundamentally focused on selling the idea that System Perturbations are here to stay as the new form of global conflict in this age where connectedness defines both strength and vulnerability. Taken on its own, I think itís a wonderfully compelling little piece. It has amazed me how virtually none of the reviews of PNM have explored the System Perturbation concept, a problem having to doóI thinkówith the complexity of the argument (not to mention the fact that itís only one of about 5 humungous ideas in the book).

But I have steadfastly refused to dumb down the idea, even as I feared Mark Warren might push me to eliminate it from the final draft of the book (something we openly discussed). In my mind, it is the most revolutionary idea in PNM, and Iím very proud itís in the book, becauseóas Art Cebrowskiótold me, itís important that I got the idea down in print somewhere significant, as a sort of marker for the future. Of all the concepts in the book, I think it will have the longest legs, something I fear is lost on all readers except those who came away from the Y2K experience with the same deep impressions that I, Bradd Hayes, and Art Cebrowski did.

I wrote the first definition of the bifurcation of the U.S. military idea in response to the Y2K experience (ìLife After DoDth or: How the Evernet Changes Everythingî), and many of the key concepts in PNM found there start in the Year 2000 International Security Dimension Project (as did my association with my webmaster Critt, who cracked my code way back then). In many ways, then, the Final Report of the study was a clear precursor, or dress rehearsal for PNM in the same way that Y2K was a dress rehearsal for 9/11ósomething sys admin guys from all over the country constantly remind me upon reading PNM (and thanking me for drawing that historical connection).

As a final sidenote: a later version of this article recast as ìA New Ordering Principle for U.S. National Securityî that was co-authored by myself, Bradd and Art Cebrowski, was summarily turned down by Foreign Affairs, which alsoósomewhat narrowlyóturned down ìThe Global Transaction Strategyî I co-wrote with Hank Gaffney. The editor there, Gideon Rose, snidely remarked that maybe I could get Esquire to publish it, insinuating that FA found the piece too weird but maybe Esquire wouldnít. Guess Iíll just have to satisfy myself with PNM being a New York Times bestseller, not to mention a Foreign Affairs bestseller the last three months in a row.

Hmmm. Guess old Gideon (our Harvard grad careers overlapped) did me a real favor! If I had succeeded in getting into FA instead of Esquire, chances are I never would have landed Putnam, as both my agent and Neil Nyren have pointed out repeatedly. Jennifer, my agent, BTW, read ìThe Pentagonís New Mapî at her dentistís office. Thatís how we landed each other.

Geez! I owe Gideon a lot, come to think of it. Maybe I should send him a bottle of something!

Here's the article: System Perturbation: Conflict in the Age of Globalization (with no further commentary on my part), and hereís today catch:

Life during wartime (this ainít no fooliní around!)

ìU.S. Warns of High Risk of Qaeda Attack: Finance Centers Are Said to Be the Targets,î by Eric Lichtblau, New York Times, 2 Aug, p. A1.

ìAl Qaeda Seeks to Disrupt U.S. Economy, Experts Warn,î by Don Van Natta Jr., NYT, 2 Aug, p. A12

ìCampaign Dogged by Terror Fight: Candidates Show Signs of Concern and Confusion,î by Adam Nagourney and David M. Halbfinger, NYT, 2 Aug, p. A1.

ìWhat Would Machiavelli Do? If Kerry can win the election, America can win the war,î by Robert Wright, NYT, 2 Aug, p. A21.

"Kerry Pledges Iraq Troop Cut Within 4 Years: Details Not Offered on Ways To Get More Aid From Allies,î by Dan Balz and Lois Romano, Washington Post, 2 Aug, p. A1.

ìUnexpectedly, Kerry drops slightly in poll: Findings may indicate that voters have made up minds,î by Susan Page, USA Today, 2 Aug, p. 5A.

ìFor Now, Kerry Has History on His Side,î by Robert G. Kaiser, WP, 25 July, p. B5.

The Sys Admin force and the dialectics of change

ìSpecial Warriors Have Growing Ranks and Growing Pains in Taking Key Antiterror Role,î by Eric Schmitt and Thom Shanker, NYT, 2 Aug, p. A6.

ìChina, Taiwan, U.S. Give Displays of Military Might: Exercises a Reminder of Potential for Conflict Over Island,î by Edward Cody, WP, 27 July, p. A18.

ìCould U.N. Fix Iraq? Word From Kosovo Isnít Encouraging: U.S. Ousted Tyrant There, Too; Now World Body Struggles With a Privatization Plan,î by Andrew Higgins, Wall Street Journal, 2 Aug, p. A1.

ìFive Months After Aristide, Mayhem Rules the Streets,î by Michael Kamber, NYT, 2 Aug, p. A4.

France as the arch collaborator in the GWOT?

ìPlaying the Role of U.S. Foil: Franceís Envoy to NATO Frames Divided Worldviews,î by Philip Shishkin, WSJ, 2 Aug, p. A9.

Reports of Doha Development Roundís demise greatly exaggerated

ìInterim Trade Triumph Short on Hard Details: Envoys Reach Agreement to Agree in Time on Scaling Back Farm Subsidies,î by Elizabeth Becker, NYT, 2 Aug, p. C1.

ìFarm Accord Spurs WTO Trade Talks,î by Scott Miller and Scott Kilman, WSJ, 2 Aug, p. A3.

ìPoor Nations Need Trade Talks to Succeed,î by Neil King Jr., WSJ, 2 Aug, p. A2.

Viewing global futures from the 107th floor of WTC 1

ìBanking Duel In Japan Signals End of Old Ways: Sumitomoís Bold Offer for UFJ Challenges Bid by Mitsubishi Tokyo And a Backroom-Deals Culture,î by Martin Fackler, WSJ, 2 Aug, p. C1.

ìChinese Rainmakers Competing for Clouds: Widespread Drought Leads to Regional Rivalries,î by Edward Cody, 2 Aug, WP, p. A12.

ìCaliforniaís CO2 Plan Worries Automakers: Cutting Emission Would Be Costly, Industry Warns,î by Greg Schneider, WP, 27 July, p. E1.

How soccer explains good Sys Admin efforts across the Gap

ìIn Midst of Chaos, Sweet Victory: Iraqi Soccer Win Over Rival Saudi Arabia a Welcome Distraction,î by Jackie Spinner, WP, 27 July, p. A19.