How this election hinges on the Midwest

ìBush Planning August Attack Against Kerry: Both Roll Out Guns in Usually Quiet Month,î by Adam Nagourney and Robin Toner, New York Times, 1 Aug, p. A1.

ìBush Faces New Obstacles In Keeping Alliesí Support,î by Christopher Marquis, NYT, 31 July, p. A6.

ìAll Things to All People,î by David Brooks, NYT, 31 July, p. A27.

Bush will be letting Kerry have both barrelsóin August no less! Kerry is determined to fight back tooth and nail, so that plus the Olympics and all the protestors at the GOP convention, plus the latest terrorist warnings specifically at the financial houses. Whew! Close to a month in booming China is looking a bit more relaxed than staying here. Now Iím really hoping C-SPAN holds off on showing my brief until Sept.

Foreign policy is a focus in this election like we havenít seen since 1984, when the Cold War heated up plenty between Reagan and those dying old men in the Kremlin. It can get worse in Iraq and it certainly will so long as the kidnappings appear to have effect, so the big thing for Bush will be keeping what allies we have and busting ass to pull in some moreóany more but especially someone big like the Russians. But this is where our lack of big allies in the coalition is coming back to hurt us. Our coalition has numbers of countries, but most tend to be pretty small military contingents, so thereís more than a few Philippines-type crews in that crowd.

Of course, given the train of events in Iraq, all Kerry has to do is cite his military war record and promise to be more careful using the troops and more smooth with the allies and he looks pretty good simply by comparison. So David Brooks may whine about the lack of specifics in Kerryís acceptance speech, but frankly thereís no real money in it for him. All he has to do is let Iraq continue to burn and promise a surer hand as an alternative and that alone may do the trick.

CNN showed a very telling map just before Kerryís speech on Thursday that projected who would win each state if the race were held today: Kerry took 300 electoral and Bush 235. Of course, itís totally theoretical and itís bound to look better for Kerry right during his convention, but look at it this way: it has to show a result like that now if Kerry is going to win. And if Kerry is going to win, thatís the sort of early indicator we should expect to see right now.

The crucial states in this election will be in the Midwest: a big swatch running from Ohio to Minnesota. Many of the crucial, closest races will be found there. I have to tell you, just polling my wifeís family members from Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, it does not look good for Bush. Many of Vonneís relatives will go Republican on a good day, but none are leaning that way. They simply no longer trust Bush and say so. If Bush canít touch these Republican-leaning centrists, his work is cut out for him.