China backs off on SARS whistle-blower
Wednesday, July 21, 2004 at 5:32PM "China Releases the SARS Whistle-Blower," by Joseph Kahn, New York Times, 21 July, p. A6.
Good move by the Party elite: cracking down on this guy for his comments about the Tiananmen Square massacre of 1989 got them nowhere in the eyes of the world.
Here's the key analysis:
While there is no evidence that senior officials are reconsidering their stance that the crackdown was justified, the decision to detain and then release Dr. Jiang suggests that leaders are conflicted when handling high-level dissent on the issue. That may stimulate hopes that the party will sooner or later apologize for the violent suppression of the Tiananmen protesters.
To me, this apology won't happen until the third-generation leadership, exemplified by Jiang Jemin, remaining head of the military, is finally escorted off the historical stage by the just-put-in-place fourth-generation of leaders, exemplified by Hu Jintao. The 3rd-gen leaders will never admit they were wrong about 1989, because it calls into question their historical legacy as rulers, something Jiang is very keen to protect (the man has a huge ego).
But when that apology does finally come, a real tipping point will have been reached, not just for the 4th-gen leadership group, but for the declining power of the PLA, which inevitably be tainted by this apology.
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