Say It Isn't So, Henry!

Cold War artifacts

Reference: "For Bush, Realpolitik Is No Longer a Dirty Word," by James Mann (author of "Rise of the Vulcans"), New York Times, 11 April, p. WK5.

Basic line of piece: visionary and ideological foreign policy of Bush II yielding now to more Bush I-like, Scowcroft/Kissingerian sort of realpolitik, thanks to troubles in Iraq.

This article is sort of the counter/compliment to my own in the Post on the same day, claiming that 9/11 has forced all the hard-power ideologues of the Bush Administration to cool their previous efforts at confronting a Russia, China, or India, because the new absorption in the Middle East and Iraq specifically means we need to think more in our national interests about these rising great powers. Here's the key quotes:

"Even as Mr. Bush, in speeches and strategy statements, railed against an 'axis of evil' and set forth a doctrine of pre-emptive military strikes, he and his top aides regularly emphasized the importance of strong American relations with the world's strongest powers, specifically China, Russia and India. Indeed, it was the administration's diplomacy with these great powers after Sept. 11 that made possible the introduction of American troops and bases into Central Asia, the crucial prerequisite for the war in Afghanistan.

. . .

On the surface, at least, the Bush team seems to be pressing for democracy in Iraq while de-emphasizing the need for democratization in China and Russia. One might argue that the latter countries will be of greater importance to American values and interests a quarter century from now."

Bingo!

I agree on the long-term reality, and I agree that we sold those three countries on letting the Pentagon sink troops and bases into Central Asia, but the questions beg: what did they get for their acquiescence? And why are none of these countries in Iraq today?

What China gets is a new missile defense shield arrayed against it in Asia.

What Russia gets is F-16s in the Baltics to guard NATO's new up-close-and-personal border.

What India gets is Pakistan being declared a "major, non-NATO ally."

I see these three states offering carrots and getting sticks in reply. If this is realpolitik, then God help us. No state is stupid enoughólong enoughóto see these trades as beneficial.

This isn't the return of Kissinger, who belongs in the 1970s, right where we and the Cold War left him. This is the Bush Administration far too slowly coming to gripsódiplomatically speakingówith the new strategic security environment in which the Old Core is joined by the New Core in the shared goal of shrinking the Gap.

Yes, I know I sometimes lapse into my own universe of Capitalized Concepts, but that's why I wrote the book. I want to reinvent the wheel, start a whole new language, and bury as many of the old ideas as possible in the processórealpolitik being one of them.