The proposed new rule set for the UN Security Council: Don't hold your breath!
Thursday, December 2, 2004 at 1:55AM ■"U.N. Report Urges Big Changes; Security Council Would Expand," by Warren Hoge, New York Times, 1 December 2004, p. A1.
I talked about UN Security Council reform at the end of PNM, stating that I thought big changes were in the works and that theyíd come by 2010 (p. 376).
You know which readers and friends told me that was the most fantastic prediction in the book? The ones most familiar with how the UN actually works!
Sad but true.
Yes, what Kofi Annanís commission is proposing is good stuff, and it moves the UNSC much closer to the sort of executive function required to bolster and populate an A-to-Z global rule set on processing politically-bankrupt states. The problem is, it canít really be pulled off without amending the UN charter, and thatís a UN General Assembly process. And thatís where my friendsí pessimism kicks in.
Expanding the UNSC to include New Core powers really only makes sense if youíre trying to get a critical mass of large states to come together in institutional agreement on security issues that will inevitably involve rogue Gap states. I know Iím using my particular lexicon here, but believe me, everyone at the UN will be thinking the same thing, so no illusions about what Annan is trying to achieve.
And so you can count on most Gap states rejecting this idea. And since thereís roughly 100 or them, you can kiss good-bye your two-thirds majority of 191 member states required to amend the Charter.
Unless you tell one really good story about why such a move makes sense. Right now the story Annan basically tells is, ìLook what happened with Iraq, for crying out loud!î And thatís not much of an incentive, frankly.
The real story truly appeals only to Core states: Donít you want a transparency process by which the Mugabes, Saddams, and Kim Jong Ils of the world can be gotten rid of in a standard, mutually-agreed-upon way?
Why? The unspoken caveat of such a system, frankly, is that it can never be used against fellow Core states. Thatís the realistic approach to getting India, China, Russia et. al on board for things like Sudan.
And that sort of logic will never survive a UN General Assembly debateóno matter how much it makes sense.
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