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EDITORIAL: "Britain's Debt Omen," Wall Street Journal, 22 May 2009.
Federal debt held by the public as a share of GDP, 1950-2011.
It was about 100% at the end of WWI. By 1950 it's down to 80%, then down to less than 50% by 1960 and less than 30% by 1970. It remains flat, amazingly enough, across the tough 70s.
Then Reagan comes on and it explodes to roughly 50% by the end of Bush the Elder's term. Clinton brings it back down to about 33% by the end of his eight years (that tax-and-spender!) and then Bush the Younger pulls it back up to the high 30s by 2008 and leaves Obama to clean up the mess, so that now the numbers project back up to about 70%.
The slide I use doesn't track the amount held by the public but takes the entire debt relative to GDP. My numbers go from roughly 90% at Truman's start down to about 30% at Carter's end, then back to 65-66% at the end of Reagan-Bush, down to 57-58% at end of Clinton, and then back up to almost 70% as Obama's splurge kicks in through 2010.
Here's the difference between the two measures, as captured by Wikipedia:
Debt held by the public is all federal debt held by states, corporations, individuals, and foreign governments, but does not include intragovernmental debt obligations or debt held in the Social Security Trust Fund.
So I guess my chart captures the hidden costs of an aging demographic structure better.
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