■"Iran Moves To Roll Back Rights Won By Women: Hard-liners in the government are having their way, at least for now," by Nazila Fathi, New York Times, 19 September 2004, p. A13.

As I've said before, when we decided to do both Afghanistan and Iraq, we sacrificed the progress toward reform in Iran and any hopes for near-term rapprochement between Tehran and Washington. And no, don't tell me it was impossible because Iran supports terrorism in the region, because we managed to start dÈtente with the Soviets while they were doing the same all over the world.

But when the US took down both the Taliban and Saddam with ease (the occupations and reconstructions being another thing), it was only natural that Tehran would immediately experience a back-tracking effect in terms of the reforms put forth by the moderate president Mohammad Khatamióthe most promising would-be Gorbachev for Iran yet. And since women's rights are one of the few screws the mullahs can actually turn in their twisted universe (it's still quite legal under Iranian law for a man to marry up to four permanent wives and have an unlimited number of "temporary" onesóalthough most in society frown upon such things), we're watching yet another bit of blow back from the Bush Administration's efforts to transform the Middle East. Doesn't mean it was wrong to try this tack, it just means this scenario pathway will be full of slippery slopes leading in all directions.

Most of those directions are positive, however, even as they create tumult and anxiety locally, because that gets people debating the issues and forces them to make choices, rather than just accept the status quo oróworseólet the elites put the screws to them out of their fear that real reform and change is just around the corner, waiting to topple their repressive regimes. So you may see yet another example of the Big Bang strategy gone wrong, whereas I see a frightened Iranian leadership reaching for straws. They can piss all they want, the wind heading their direction is only growing in strength:

"It is very obvious that the new Parliament would like to impose a strict model of covering for women, but they will not succeed," said Ahmad Zeidabadi, a political scientist and journalist in Tehran. "The more they put pressure, the more they get a reaction because people simply do not think such restrictions can solve their more basic needs."

Imposing restrictings on women's dress has been a barometeróshowing how far the authorities are willing to go to allow social freedom and give more rights to women.

Nearly two-thirds of Iran's population is under 30, and more than 60 percent of university students are women. Women have become more vocal, and they demand equal rights. They want jobs and more legal rights within the family structure.

"The general trend in this country is moving towards reforms," said Haleh Anvari a political analyst in Tehran. "These restrictions are like putting a little stone in front of a huge storm that is going for reform," she added, referring to efforts made by the new Parliament.

It's because of signals like that and general demographic trends like those cited here that I argue for America's next effort being against North Korea vice an Iran. I think we've got enough stirring of the pot going on in the Middle East right now, and as that plot thickens, we'll need to free ourselves progressively from military commitments elsewhere. Europe is ready for this, but East Asia is not, and Kim is the culprit there.

So I'm sticking to my predictions that Iran is closer to a host of tipping points than many realize, meaning we do best by making Iraq a success story or at least enough of a tumult that Iran is sucked into the larger regional process of change it unleashes.