ïìU.S. Conceding Rebels Control Regions of Iraq: U.S. Deaths Pass 1,000; Pentagon Is Not Certain When Central Areas Can Be Secured,î by Eric Schmitt and Steven R. Weisman, New York Times, 8 September, p. A1.

Thereís the old argument about talking your recession as early as possible in your first administration so you can get it out of the way in time for your re-election campaign. That was supposedly the great lesson of Reagan I.

This administration has taken a surprising but understandable tack on Iraq: the White House prefers to admit a September slump, forego any October surprise, and apparently put off the bad news until January, hoping that when that bad news invariably comes, the main price will be paid by Iraqis fighting insurgents, not U.S. troops.

That the Pentagon chooses to admit that coalition forces do not control a major chunk of Iraq on the same day that it announces it has surpassed the 1,000-death mark in this operation should put the war back on the front burner in this election, but in a strange twist it may actually bury it further in the publicís consciousness. By giving Allawi several months to try and negotiate settlements with insurgent factions, the U.S. military hopes to train up the Iraqi forces sufficiently to constitute the bulk of the warfighting force that ultimately retakes the Sunni triangle come January, in what will surely be some fierce fighting if political settlements cannot not reached.

Can Iraq recede from this election in the meantime?

As long as the Swift Boat Veteransí book targeting Kerry can remain number 1 on Amazon, donít underestimate how ugly this campaign may still get.