Interesting bit: Average US recession (11 since 1930s) lasts less than a year (or 6-12 months) except for two (early 1970s and early 1980s) that were global ones, in addition. Global ones run 12-18 months. Now we are told (rather retroactively, I might add) that the advanced Old Core world has really been in recession for close to a year, so the thinking becomes we're about halfway through this. That corresponds to a lot of predictions I've seen that say the recovery doesn't begin until the second half of 2009.