GEOPOLITICAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT: Now for the Hard Part: From Iraq to Afghanistan, By George Friedman, Stratfor, July 15, 2008

Friedman is always smart, but this is simply brilliant. There is so much I agree with in here, such as the missed regional geopolitical opportunity because we did the postwar badly in Iraq, the real courage Bush shows on the surge, but then also the reasonable and shrewd response from Iran, and finally the logic of the redirect on Afghanistan (which Iran would support). You put that all together and I still see the distinct opportunity to redefine the relationship with Iran. No, Tehran gets no simple puppet state in Iraq (always an overblown fear, in my mind, given the Arab-Persian divide, which is real, even among Shia), but Iran will clearly influence quite a bit. No, there won't be a fast withdrawal (never a possibility), but a steady one that must occur because the Army is so broken and Afghanistan calls. This piece codifies my thinking all along on the surge: no argument against more bodies from Mr. SysAdmin (the commitment signal being key), but clear disagreement on the need to confront Iran over nukes (not covered here by Friedman) when there was such overlapping strategic interests still on both Iraq and Afghanistan/Pakistan. To let Iran drive us so overtly on the nuke issue was to give Tehran too much control over our foreign policy and that decision gained us nothing really, the inevitable drawdown and proper redirect being in the cards all along. In fact, it is the danger of conflict of Iran that would be the ultimate diversion. That's what I draw from the piece. You may draw other things. But again, it is brilliant analysis from Friedman.