ARTICLE: Hit Iran where it hurts, By BARACK OBAMA, August 30th 2007

Decently balanced piece--in most regards--on Iran by Obama. Still, the knee-jerk to demonize Iran as the greatest threat in a generation is historically sloppy and strikes me as strategic pandering. The Iranian Revolution went nowhere since 1979, including its failure in Iran. Tehran's reach for the bomb, quite frankly, makes a ton of strategic sense given: 1) our recent wars on its right and left and our avowed talk of regime change and 2) Schelling's historical point that the bomb ends your vulnerability to U.S. invasion (in fact, invasion or attack from anyone--in short, deterrence works, whether you're Tehran or Tel Aviv). As for Tehran's support to fellow Shia radicals in the region,that's also expected given its new-found influence thanks to America's toppling of two nasty Sunni regimes (Taliban and Saddam) and the enabling of the region's first Arab Shia state (Iraq). That Iran fights us and Israel assymmetrically may distress us, but that's just how weaker powers fight (terror and insurgency and proxies). Over-emotionalizing--with strategic hyperbole--such tactics in the region helps no one. Meanwhile, America has to grow up a bit and realize that the Big Bang leads to the Shia revivial and that it's only through that path that we'll foster genuine pluralism and less religious extremism in politics. Sure, it'd be cool to jump right to the Tom Jeffersons, but let's be real about what comes next. Can't have pluralism with the continuation of Sunni authoritarianism and suppression of Shia minorities (the Saudi path that brought us the Taliban and al-Qaida and 9/11), and when it comes to mixing religious fundamentalism with political authoritarianism, it's the Sunnis with their Wahabbism and Salafism and accompanying al-Qaida network that's the bigger problem today, not Iran's exhausted revolution (a failed mixing of Shiism and politics that's historically quite abnormal--unlike in the Sunni world) nor Sistani's "quietism" (that says Shia must rescue faith from politics--the opposite of Khomeinism). [Me, I give Sistani the Nobel for peace every year starting in 2003. His influence and importance remain vastly unappreciated.] The realistic grand strategist sees more allies than enemies in Shia and puts aside the traumatic memories of 1979. If our new anti-Shia strategy takes hold, we'll be back in the business of bolstering Sunni dictators and mass repression and killing of Shia. Then again, it's what we know and what we're comfortable with throughout history. You'd hope for more sophisticated and grown-up talk from Obama, but that's just domestic politics, I guess.